The laws of luck E-Book

Richard A. Proctor

• Herausgeber: Richard A. Proctor
• Kategorie: Lebensstil
• Sprache: Englisch
• Veröffentlichungsjahr: 2015

Beschreibung

To the student of science, accustomed to recognise the operation of law in all phenomena, even though the nature of the law and the manner of its operation may be unknown, there is something strange in the prevalent belief in luck. In the operations of nature and in the actions of men, in commercial transactions and in chance games, the great majority of men recognise the prevalence of something outside law—the good fortune or the bad fortune of men or of nations, the luckiness or unluckiness of special times and seasons—in fine (though they would hardly admit as much in words), the influence of something extranatural if not supernatural.This is true alike of great things and of small; of matters having a certain dignity, real or apparent, and of matters which seem utterly contemptible. Napoleon announcing that a certain star (as he supposed) seen in full daylight was his star and indicated at the moment the ascendency of his fortune, or William the Conqueror proclaiming, as he rose with hands full of earth from his accidental fall on the Sussex shore, that he was destined by fate to seize England, may not seem comparable with a gambler who says that he shall win because he is in the vein, or with a player at whist who rejoices that the cards he and his partner use are of a particular colour, or expects a change from badto good luck because he has turned his chair round thrice; but one and all are alike absurd in the eyes of the student of science, who sees law, and not luck, in all things that happen.

Leseprobe

Richard A. Proctor

The laws of luck

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Table of contents

Laws of Luck

Gamblers’ Fallacies

Fair and Unfair Wagers

Betting on Races

Lotteries

Gambling in Shares

Fallacies and Coincidences

Notes on Poker

Martingales; or, Sure(?) Gambling Systems

Laws of Luck

To the student of science, accustomed to recognise the operation of law in all phe-nomena, even though the nature of the law and the manner of its operation may beunknown, there is something strange in the prevalent belief in luck. In the operationsof nature and in the actions of men, in commercial transactions and in chance games,the great majority of men recognise the prevalence of something outside law—thegood fortune or the bad fortune of men or of nations, the luckiness or unluckinessof special times and seasons—in fine (though they would hardly admit as much inwords), the influence of something extranatural if not supernatural. [For to the manof science, in his work as student of nature, the word ‘natural’ implies the action oflaw, and the occurrence of aught depending on what men mean by luck would besimply the occurrence of something supernatural.]This is true alike of great thingsand of small; of matters having a certain dignity, real or apparent, and of matterswhich seem utterly contemptible.Napoleon announcing that a certain star (as hesupposed) seen in full daylight washisstar and indicated at the moment the ascen-dency of his fortune, or William the Conqueror proclaiming, as he rose with handsfull of earth from his accidental fall on the Sussex shore, that he was destined byfate to seize England, may not seem comparable with a gambler who says that heshall win because he is in the vein, or with a player at whist who rejoices that thecards he and his partner use are of a particular colour, or expects a change from badto good luck because he has turned his chair round thrice; but one and all are alikeabsurd in the eyes of the student of science, who sees law, and not luck, in all thingsthat happen. He knows that Napoleon’s imagined star was the planet Venus, boundto be where Napoleon and his officers saw it by laws which it had followed for pastmillions of years, and will doubtless follow for millions of years to come.He knowsthat William fell (if by accident at all) because of certain natural conditions affect-ing him physiologically (probably he was excited and over anxious) and physically,not by any influence affecting him extranaturally.But he sees equally well that thegambler’s superstitions about ‘the vein,’ the ‘maturity of the chances,’ about luckand about change of luck, relate to matters which are not only subject to law, butmay be dealt with by processes of calculation. He recognises even in men’s belief inluck the action of law, and in the use which clever men like Napoleon and Williamhave made of this false faith of men in luck, a natural result of cerebral development,of inherited qualities, and of the system of training which such credulous folk havepassed through.Let us consider, however, the general idea which most men have respecting whatthey call luck.We shall find that what they regard as affording clear evidence thatthere is such a thing as luck is in reality the result of law.Nay, they adopt such acombination of ideas about events which seem fortuitous that the kind of evidencethey obtain must have been obtained, let events fall as they may. ‘ ‘ ‘ ‘