Feasibility Study and Future Projections of Suborbital Space Tourism at the Example of Virgin Galactic E-Book

Matthias Otto

• Herausgeber: GRIN Verlag
• Sprache: Englisch
• Veröffentlichungsjahr: 2012

Beschreibung

Bachelor Thesis from the year 2008 in the subject Tourism - Miscellaneous, grade: 1.3, Cologne Business School Köln, language: English, abstract: Die Arbeit "Feasibility Study and Future Projections of Suborbital Space Tourism at the Example of Virgin Galactic" beschäftigt sich mit dem Thema Weltraumtourismus, insbesondere mit dem so genannten suborbitalen Weltraumtourismus - ein gegenwärtig bei Privatunternehmen zu beobachtender Trend, die kommerzielle Flüge bis zur Grenze zum Weltall anbieten. Diese Grenze, nach ihrem Entdecker Theodore von Karman "Karman Line" benannt, befindet sich laut der FAI (Fédération Aéronautique Internationale) in einer Höhe von etwa 100 km. Der Verfasser führt am Beispiel des angloamerikanischen Unternehmens Virgin Galactic eine detaillierte Machbarkeitsstudie zu diesem Phänomen durch und stellt, basierend auf den Ergebnissen dieser Studie, Zukunftsprognosen auf. Nach einer generellen Einführung in das Thema (u.a. Geschichte, Beweggründe für einen Weltraumflug, Stufen des Weltraumtourismus), widmet sich der Verfasser den Schwerpunkten der Machbarkeitsstudie. Hierbei handelt es sich im Einzelnen um eine Analyse der Vorgehensweise von Virgin Galactic und den vielversprechendsten Konkurrenten (Space Adventures, Benson Space Company, Space Access, Incredible Adventures, Rocketplane Limited, Starchaser Industries, und Blue Origin), sowie um eine Analyse der Weltraumflugschiffe und deren Hersteller. Anschließend wird der gesetzliche Rahmen am Beispiel der FAA (Federal Aviation Administration) dargestellt und es werden Ergebnisse aus Marktforschungsprojekten ausgewertet, um die Nachfrage für suborbitale Flüge zu erklären. Die Arbeit kommt zu dem Ergebnis, dass sich die Industrie zwar noch in einem Anfangsstadium befindet, aber trotzdem ein enormes Wachstumspotential aufweist.

Leseprobe

Table of Content

List of Abbreviations

1. Introduction.

2. General Aspects on Space Tourism

2.1 History of Space Exploration and Space Tourism

2.2 Motives for going to space

2.3 Benefits of Space Tourism

2.4 Obstacles to Space Tourism

2.5 Stages of Space Tourism

3. Feasibility Study and Future Projections of Suborbital Space Tourism.

3.1 The Virgin Galactic Approach

3.1.1 The Product

3.1.2 The Place

3.1.3 The Communication Policy

3.1.4 SWOT Analysis of Virgin Galactic

3.2 Analysis of Virgin Galactic’s Direct Competitors in Suborbital Space Tourism

3.2.1 Space Adventures

3.2.2 Benson Space Company

3.2.3 Space Access.

3.2.4 Incredible Adventures

3.2.5 Rocketplane Limited

3.2.6 Starchaser Industries

3.2.7 Blue Origin

3.2.8 Summary

3.3 Suborbital Reusable Launch Vehicles and Their Manufacturers

3.3.1 SpaceShipTwo (The Spaceship Company)

3.3.2 Dream Chaser (SpaceDev)

3.3.3 New Shepard (Blue Origin)

3.3.4 Skyhopper (Space Access)

3.3.6 Lynx (XCOR Aerospace)

3.3.7 Ascender (Bristol Spaceplanes)

3.3.8 Thunderstar (Starchaser Industries)

3.3.9 Rocketplane XP (Rocketplane Limited)

3.3.10 Summary

3.4 Regulatory Framework and Non-Profit Space Tourism Organisations

3.4.1 Federal Aviation Administration (FAA)

3.4.2 X Prize Foundation

3.4.3 Space Tourism Society

3.4.4 Summary

3.5 Suborbital Space Tourism Demand

4. Conclusion

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To Jana and Florian

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Acknowledgements

This work would not have been possible without the contribution of a great number of people that made themselves available for interviews and thus helped me with my investigations on suborbital space tourism. In particular, I am deeply grateful to the following persons:

Dr. Robert A. Goehlich

Founder of Space Tourism Course,Keio University,Yokohama, Japan

Will Whitehorn

President,Virgin Galactic,London, UK

John S. Spencer

Founder and President,Space Tourism Society,Los Angeles, USA

Anthony Haynes

Propulsion Team Leader,Starchaser Industries,Hyde, UK

Dr. Olle Norberg

Chairman,Spaceport Sweden,Kiruna, Sweden

Jane Reifert

President,Incredible Adventures,Sarasota, USA

Christoph Berner

Head of Marketing & PR,Designreisen,Munich, Germany

Douglas Graham

Public Affairs,XCOR Aerospace,Mojave, USA

Tom Shelley

Vice President of Marketing,Space Adventures,Vienna, USA

Dr. Mathias Spude

Company Spokesman,EADS Astrium Germany,Bremen, Germany

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List of Abbreviations

AMD Advanced Micro Devices ARCA Aeronautics and Cosmonautics Romanian Association ASA Accredited Space Agent CC Crew Capsule CEO Chief Executive Officer EADS European Aeronautic Defence and Space Company EKAD East Kern Airport District ELV Expendable Launch Vehicle ESA European Space Agency FAA Federal Aviation Administration FAI Fédération Aéronautique Internationale FAQ Frequently Asked Questions HNWI High Net Worth Individual ILTM International Luxury Travel Market ISS International Space Station LEO Low-Earth-Orbit MCAAS Marine Corps Auxiliary Air Station MPL Maximum Probable Loss NASA National Aeronautics and Space Administration PTC Product Development Company RLV Reusable Launch Vehicle SCSG Southern California Selene Group SSC Swedish Space Corporation USSR Union of Soviet Socialist Republics WTC Western Technology Center

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Definitions

Suborbital Space Flight: “Suborbital space flight for tourism can be defined where customers pay an initially high price to go on a quick ballistic flight in a spacecraft into space, get a few minutes of weightlessness and then return to Earth, without reaching orbit.” (Goehlich, 2002, pp. 15-16)

Space Tourism: “Space tourism can be defined to include not only the vehicles that take public passengers into space, but also from the perspective of the "destination" paradigm. As such, the industry can be envisioned to include not only Earth based attractions that simulate the space experience such as space theme parks, space training camps, virtual reality facilities, multi-media interactive games and telerobotic Moon rovers controlled from Earth, but also parabolic flights, vertical suborbital flights, orbital flights lasting up to 3 days, or week-long stays at a floating space hotel, including participatory educational, research and entertainment experiences as well as space sports competitions (i.e. space Olympics). (Goehlich, 2007, p. 215)

Space Tourism: “Ordinary members of the public buying tickets to travel to space and back.” (Space Future, 2007)

Apogee: “The apogee is the point at which a body is at its furthest orbit from the Earth. The word derives from the Greek prefixapomeaning away and the wordgaiameaning Earth. When a body is at apogee, it is also at its minimal orbital velocity.” (McGuigan, 2008)

The Karman Line: Named after Hungarian Theodore von Karman, an engineer and physicist dealing with aeronautics, the term Karman Line is generally used to describe the boundary between Earth and Outer Space, which is defined by the Fédération Aéronautique Internationale, an astronautic records commission, to be at an altitude of 100 kilometres. (FAI, 2004)

Low-Earth-Orbit: “The region of space below the altitude of 2000 km.” (NASA, 1995)

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1. Introduction

Since its very beginning mankind has been enormously impelled by visions. Striving for records and yearning for adventures is as old as humanity itself. Consequently, the Mount Everest was scaled and the depths of the oceans were explored. After thousands of years it seems that all adventures on Mother Earth have been done. We have always been fascinated by the unknown and the mysterious things, and which territory is more unknown than the Outer Space? Almost everyone has watched movies dealing with this topic, but scarcely anybody has ever set foot on non-Earth area. However, what still seems unimaginable might soon become daily routine. Trips to London, Paris or New York? Why not travel into the endlessness of space one time? Private ventures are currently planning to capitalise on this market niche: spaceports are built, special vehicles are under development, and tickets for suborbital space flights can already be purchased. The start of theSpace Racehas been heralded. In doing so, safety is the supplier’s top priority. Hitherto, the offer is narrowed down to the wealthy members of our society - a flight costs some hundred thousand dollars. However, the companies expect prices to go down significantly if demand is steadily increasing, which will be the cornerstone for mass space tourism. It might be unbelievable at present, but the first steps towards fulfilling this vision have been taken.

This work deals with the topic space tourism, more specifically the author introduces aFeasibility Study and Future Projections of Suborbital Space Tourism,which is demonstrated at the example ofVirgin Galactic.In doing so, the core objective of the present work is to analyse and evaluate whether the emerging suborbital space tourism has the potential to turn into a viable and revenue-generating industry in the near future. In order to answer this research question, there is a plethora of crucial aspects that will be investigated. First of all, the author comes up with general aspects on space tourism, including an overview about the history of space exploration and tourism, followed by the motives for going to space, the benefits as well as the obstacles of space tourism, and finally its different stages. This information builds the cornerstone for the further analysis. Afterwards, there will be the actual feasibility study and the future projections of suborbital space tourism. At this point, it should be noticed that the feasibility study will be the largest part of the present work since it delivers facts, whereas the future projections are rather based on these facts. A feasibility study in general is a study with

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the goal of determining a project’s viability. According to these results, a decision can be made whether to proceed with the project or whether to cease it. The feasibility study in the present work consists of theVirgin Galacticapproach, an analysis of the direct competitors in suborbital space tourism, an analysis of suborbital reusable launch vehicles and their manufacturers, an overview about the regulatory framework as well as about non-profit space tourism organisations, and finally it consists of the suborbital space tourism demand. At the end there will be a conclusion, which contains the most vital results of the feasibility study and, more importantly, the answer to the research question. In general, the author provides an overview about the content as well as an indication of the used literature in the beginning of each chapter. On the whole, sources of information are the Internet and publications in terms of books or reports, which will provide the basics for this work. Additionally, the author comes up with results from personal interviews conducted with experts that are either employed in companies related to space tourism or that are investigating on this topic. Normally, such an interview consists of five to seven target-oriented questions. The author conducted the interviews either via telephone or via email contact. This work will be finalised by providing the bibliography, the appendix, as well as the affidavit.

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2. General Aspects on Space Tourism

In this chapter, the author provides general aspects on space tourism, which build the basis for the further research. In particular, focal points will be a history of space exploration and space tourism, motives for going to space, benefits of space tourism, obstacles to space tourism, and stages of space tourism.

2.1 History of Space Exploration and Space Tourism

The author is now giving a conspectus of the most important events in the history of space exploration and space tourism. The basis therefore is a research study calledSpace Planes and Space Tourism: The Industry and the Regulation of its Safety.(Pelton, 2007) Additionally, information from other sources is taken and cited directly. On October 4, 1957, theUnion of Soviet Socialist Republics(USSR) successfully launched the world’s first artificial satellite,Sputnik I,and thus heralded the dawn of the space age. Arising from this milestone and as a kind of reaction to the Soviet space programme, former U.S. president Dwight D. Eisenhower created theNational Aeronautics and Space Administration(NASA), which officially opened its business on October 1, 1958. The U.S. wish of also launching a satellite became true a bit earlier, concretely on January 31, 1958, whenExplorer Isuccessfully took off. (Garber, 2007) The USSR - U.S. competition found its apex some years later, and again the USSR was ahead by a nose: On April 12, 1961, the Soviet cosmonaut Yuri Gagarin was the first man who orbited the Earth. One year later, on February 20, 1962, John Glenn was the first U.S. astronaut successfully orbiting the Earth.

An important event took place on August 22, 1963, when the North AmericanX-15,a rocket-powered aircraft flown by Joseph A. Walker, set the world altitude record at 67 miles (approximately 108 kilometres). This record remained unbroken until the flight ofSpaceShipOneon October 4, 2004, which reached an altitude of 69,6 miles (approximately 112 kilometres). Its pilots Mike Melvill and Brian Binnie thus madeSpaceShipOnebecome the second private manned spacecraft going to space. (Scaled Composites, 2008)

In 1968, there was the premiere of Stanley Kubrick’s and Arthur C. Clarke’s2001, A Space Odyssey,a movie dealing with the topic space tourism. It includes scenes of a manned space station and the way life is in Outer Space.