Middle East Enigma. Managing Political and Economic Risks on the Ground E-Book

Rolf Tanner

• Herausgeber: GRIN Verlag
• Kategorie: Geisteswissenschaft
• Sprache: Englisch
• Veröffentlichungsjahr: 2015

Beschreibung

Seminar paper from the year 2015 in the subject Politics - International Politics - Region: Near East, Near Orient, , course: Veranstaltung der "Zug Commodity Association", Zug, Schweiz, language: English, abstract: The Middle East remains one of the planet’s major conflict arenas. It is among the highest military spenders. While global defence expenditures have been declining or only notching up slightly over the last three years, they have continued to grow by more than 10 % in the Middle East. Among the 15 countries with the highest defence expenditures in relations to GDP, more than half are from the Middle East. The text gives an overview about the historical and structural developments of the current conflict landscape in the Middle East and then focuses on the ascent of ISIS as an example of these developments at work. It closes with an Outlook about how the Middle East might look like after the demise of ISIS.

Leseprobe

Impressum:

Copyright (c) 2015 GRIN Verlag / Open Publishing GmbH, alle Inhalte urheberrechtlich geschützt. Kopieren und verbreiten nur mit Genehmigung des Verlags.

Bei GRIN macht sich Ihr Wissen bezahlt! Wir veröffentlichen kostenlos Ihre Haus-, Bachelor- und Masterarbeiten.

Jetzt bei www.grin.com

INHALT

Bibliography:

Notes on Zug Commodity Association (ZCA) evening event, 24 March 2015

“Middle East Enigma: Managing Political and Economic Risks on the Ground – A Hundred Years’ War.”

Dr. Rolf Tanner, polecor

Good evening, ladies and gentlemen.

I would like to open my presentation tonight with a little fable. The fable was told to me about 20 years ago by Dr. Michael Burrell, then a Middle East scholar at the London School of Oriental and African Studies (SOAS), on the occasion of some commiserating about the seeming fact that spoilers apparently always have the upper hand in the region when it comes to the matters of peace and war.

The fable goes as following:

A frog and a scorpion want to cross the Suez Canal. For the frog, this of course isn’t a problem as he knows how to swim. For the scorpion, however, this is a problem because he doesn’t know how to swim. So he asks the frog: “Can you give me a lift, buddy? I need to get to the other side.” The frog shirks and says: “Why should I do that? You are a malicious animal, and you are going to sting me as soon as you are on my back.” The scorpion responds: “Come on, why should I do that? It would be really stupid because when I am stinging you while swimming, we are both going to drown.” The frog thinks for a moment: ‘Mmmh, that’s true. Why should he do that?’ So he turns around and says to the scorpion:”OK, fine, get on my back, I bring you to the other side.” The scorpion crawls on the back of the frog, the frog gets into the water and starts swimming. But when they are in the middle of the Suez Canal, the scorpion stings the frog. The frog, knowing he is going to die, turns around and asks with his last breath before drowning: “WHY have you done this??” The scorpion only responds: “Remember – we are in the Middle East!”

A story of irrational behaviour and senseless violence. And unfortunately, when we listen to the news coming out of the Middle East on an almost daily basis, we are very often confronted with such senseless violence and completely irrational behaviour.

The Middle East remains one of the planet’s major conflict arenas. It is among the highest military spenders. While global defence expenditures have been declining or only notching up slightly over the last three years, they have continued to grow by more than 10 % in the Middle East. Among the 15 countries with the highest defence expenditures in relations to GDP, more than half are from the Middle East.

Conversely, when we look at the Index of Failed States, put together annually by the Fund Peace, Middle East and African countries predominante. This may look paradoxical as some of these states simultaneously have high military expenditures. But the Index of Failed States indicates how well the state serves its citizens across the board with government services - schools, hospitals, infrastructure. In many Middle Eastern states, the military is the only state institutions that works. All the rest is either inexistent, or just barely existing.

If the Middle East were negligible to, say, the global economy, you could argue, from a cynical perspective, that the region’s plight and drama matter little to outsiders. But apart from the humanitarian concerns we all should have for the poor human rights record and human tragedies that engulf the region, the Middle East is of course of particular geo-economic relevance. It holds half of the planet’s proved oil reserves. The picture does not change much when we add tar sands in Canada and Venezuela. And the picture isn’t too different either when we look at world gas reserves. Oil and gas remain in many respects the lubricants of the global economy, especially also in Asia, which has become the growth engine of the global economy regardless the current Chinese slowdown. Political risk thus hangs like a Damocles’ Sword over the global supply of oil and gas.

Why is the Middle East so conflict-prone? What are the roots of all these wars, revolutions and instabilities?