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A cruise ship full of scientists set about a delicate task: unraveling a mysterious, deadly virus. The problem: It kills fast and it kills everyone. Heading up the operation, which soon finds itself dealing with multiple attacks: UN Secretary General Anna Kampa. She pulls out all her connections. She is shrewd and effective. One comes to the conclusion relatively quickly that internationally operating secret services are the masterminds ...
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© 2023 Michael Exner
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Part 1
Passenger ship 'Maaru‘
West Atlantic
They sat in Alva's office. Ringstrøm, da Sibo, Lins and Germer were hunched over some stacks of printouts, trying to make sense of the dossiers. Sara was working on a list of requirements for the labs.
"We simply can't find a common factor. The specialties of the missing scientists clearly indicate that work is continuing on the virus, but to what end remains a mystery to me." Ringstrøm now looked genuinely desperate.
Sara was also dissatisfied. The coordination of the orders for the meanwhile more than 140 scientists, engineers and laboratory assistants on board the 'Maaru' ate up more and more of her time.
She raised her head, "Do you hear that?"
The others listened. A low humming sound penetrated the emerging silence and slowly intensified.
"Are those the ship's engines?" Walos Germer looked astonished. The 'Maaru' is a cruise ship and actually there to comfortably sail thousands of pensioners through the oceans with throttled engines. Now something seemed to have caused the captain to increase the speed considerably. Alva reached for the phone. "Da Sibo here, captain, what ... Yes, we're coming."
Everyone looked at him. "We are to come to the bridge. Soleiov sounded worried."
Mauters and Winter were already on the bridge. Captain Soleyov was concentrated on the phone. Then he put the phone aside.
"I believe we are now at full strength. I must inform you that a situation has developed in the last few minutes that may pose some threat to us. The region's earthquake center has informed us that a seaquake has occurred east of the British Virgin Islands in an ocean trench. It is of moderate magnitude, about six to seven. They have issued a tsunami warning for the region."
"But how can that endanger us?" Ringstrøm rumbled between them. "We're far out at sea, surely a quake wave doesn't have the power to put us in danger here."
"That's right." The captain agreed. "However, there is one factor that is difficult to assess. This quake has triggered a landslide in a deep-sea trench that runs south of and into the Puerto Rico Trench. That alone would not be a problem, because the epicenter of the quake and the landslide are several hundred miles from us. However, the Central Earthquake Control on Puerto Rico has informed all shipping companies that this quake triggered a huge blowout because dozens of square miles of methane hydrate were exposed."
"So what? That's hundreds of miles away from us, too." Ringstrøm was taking it all too slowly. "Get to the point, captain!"
"This is moving toward us. I don't know how it's all connected. But our shipping company is trying to get someone who can explain all of this. Especially someone who can tell us how to avoid the threat - if there is one."
Da Sibo asked matter-of-factly, "What is the current situation, captain? Where are we, and where are we going?"
"We are now in the area where the smaller trench, the Virgin Islands Trough, joins the Anegada Trough from the southwest and then meets the Puerto Rico Trench. So the hazard is moving toward us from the southwest. We were traveling west to east following the course of the Puerto Rico Trench at the time of the quake. Right now, we've turned northeast to avoid what's coming at us."
The phone rang. Soleyov picked it up. Then he turned on the large monitor on the wall. Anna Kampa, the UN Secretary General, appeared. "Good afternoon, ladies and gentlemen, I see everyone is already assembled, then we can get started. What is your level of knowledge?"
Soleyov informed in concise words.
"Good, then you know as much as I do. However, a geologist from the Puerto Rico Earthquake Center is being connected right now. He will explain the situation and provide us with the latest data. In addition, Captain Charles Connors from the aircraft carrier 'USS Oriskany II' is joining the conference."
Connors, a white-haired, rotund officer in uniform, nodded curtly to the crowd.
Then a young man with old-fashioned glasses and tangled hair appeared on the screen. "Good afternoon, my name is Christiano Molina. I am familiar with the situation in the quake area and also have the latest information. First of all, a question, captain. What is your current course?"
"We are traveling at top speed in a northeasterly direction."
"Can you make it out of the Puerto Rico Trench within the next two hours?"
Soleyov glanced only briefly at the map on his table. "No way. In two hours, at best, we'll be in the middle of the northern slope of the trench, even if we were to turn completely north. The 'Maaru' is a cruiser and not designed for speed."
"Then by all means change your course so that you come back over the bottom of the trench at an acute angle, which you will then follow in an easterly direction. I'll explain in a moment. And keep going as fast as you can. Every mile you get away from where the two deep-sea trenches meet reduces the danger. If there are other ships in the vicinity, please warn them. You must stay clear of the slopes of the trench. If you can't make it out of the trench, you are to stay in the area of greatest depth and escape in a westerly or easterly direction."
Connors spoke up. "I need to talk to my staff here on the 'Oriskany.' In addition, the Russians need to be informed. Their submarines are also unlikely to make it out of the trench. We'll also send our helicopters to evacuate at least some of your people from the 'Maaru'."
"Good." Kampa had long since taken charge of the meeting. "Hurry up, we'll meet again in five minutes."
"I'll get the latest data in the meantime." Molina disappeared.
It took eight minutes, then everyone was back.
"Admiral Connors, what have you accomplished?" Kampa wasted no time.
"The 'Oriskany' was on a parallel course to the 'Maaru' about 20 miles north. She has turned to the north and will manage to leave the trench due to her much higher speed. So will the two Russian sub-cruisers that were escorting the carrier. The other U-cruisers that were with the 'Maaru', like it, are too far from the edge of the trench and will stay with the cruiser. We only have three helicopters that can land on the cruise ship. They are already en route. Unfortunately, they will only be able to make one evacuation flight because the ships are moving apart. Each helicopter can take a maximum of ten people. Make a list. We'll land at your location in twenty minutes."
Molina marveled: a cruise ship guarded by an aircraft carrier and submarines? "May I ask what ..."
"No," came categorically from Kampa. This geologist really had to be from another world. For months, the media had been full of reports from the ship where dozens of high-ranking scientists were working to combat the worst plague in living memory, and this guy was from Mustopf.
"I've since asked if anyone can help us fly out at least a few more people from the 'Maaru.' No chance. The only ones who would be close enough are the disaster relief workers in the Virgin Islands. But they have their hands full rescuing the population of the coastal region that will be affected by the tsunami. Mr. Molina, now please your explanation of what is going on in the Puerto Rico trench. And in terms that are generally understood, please."
"Yes well, the seaquake that occurred about 40 minutes ago was not a massive short quake to begin with, but rather a series of several small and medium quakes, a so-called swarm quake. The epicenter was not very deep, but just below the seafloor at the level of the Virgin Islands, which is unusual in itself. We are still in the process of analyzing it."
"All right, if you get anything out of it, let us know. Now, please, just the known facts." Kampa slowed Molina down before indulging in speculation.
"The quake, which lasted several minutes, triggered what is known as a storegga effect. This is a massive landslide on both slopes, that is, north and south of the bottom of the trench. The two mudslides joined in the middle of the trench. Several hundred square kilometers of a sediment-methane hydrate mixture were exposed on both sides of the trench, but millions of cubic meters of this mixture were also carried away. The methane ice, as it is also called, has thus been brought out of its reasonably stable state and almost explosively disintegrated into its component parts, methane and water. This resulted in an enormous blowout. Further, the two combined mudslides at the sloping bottom of the trench have started moving toward the Puerto Rico Trench. In its path, the avalanche will carry large portions of the trench floor and its slope. Because of the steep slope, the avalanche will steadily increase in speed and thickness and will collapse into the Puerto Rico Trench with a force that is almost unimaginable. So much for the bad news."
Christiano Molina brought out a relief map. "Here you can see the two trenches that are involved. I've rotated the map by just under 900 so you can better see what's going to happen there. East of the Virgin Islands, the smaller trench is only about 3,000 meters deep, but then drops down to the Puerto Rico trench at about 6,500 meters. Along the way, the mudslide will steadily increase in energy, size, and speed. When it reaches the Puerto Rico Trench and then moves in an easterly direction, the trench floor is no longer sloping, but actually loses depth slightly. Therefore, my recommendation is to move east as quickly as possible, because here the avalanche slows down over time and loses mass as the heavier components are left behind or stay put. One more word on why you should stay above the trench floor. The greatest danger comes from the permanent blowout that the mudslide causes. This is strongest over the slopes of the trench because this is where most of the ice is stored. At the bottom, the methane gas is generated primarily by entrained material that has already lost much of its methane hydrate load. Therefore, this is where the chances are greatest to escape sinking."
Molina was finished. Nobody said anything. Everyone was in a daze. Sara was the first to catch herself. "We have to make the list."
"Thirty people out of two hundred and eighty." Mauters was horrified.
It turned out that no one wanted to be evacuated. Da Sibo shook his head. "Do you understand, Sara?"
"I think so. Do you want to be saved when maybe everyone left behind is dying? You'll carry that around with you for the rest of your life."
Captain Soleyov did not enter into long discussions. He determined that the thirty youngest on board would be flown out to the 'Oriskany'. Those who protested were simply stuffed into the helicopters. In this, Soleyov developed a single-mindedness that no one would have believed the lax captain capable of.
As the last helicopter departed, seven Kanew cruisers gradually appeared.
None of them had ever seen anything like it. Everyone knew submarines at least from pictures, always cigar-shaped with the turret on top. What was to be seen here had nothing to do with it. Sixty meters long, flat and almost 30 meters wide in the front third, more reminiscent of flounders or rays, they lay lazily in the sun. At the height of the greatest width are two shallow humps, only about three meters high. This is probably the equivalent of the turrets on classic submarines. This further reinforced the impression that one was dealing with huge animals. There was no color to be seen. Depending on how the light fell, they shimmered in blue, green or dark red tones.
"Probably some coating against sonar detection," Sara guessed.
"If it hadn't been for them ... Now they might go down with us. Why did they show up?"
"I assume they can better withstand the inferno that awaits us on the surface."
"Or at least the crew can get out when they're haved."
Da Sibo shook his head. "Getting out in the middle of a blowout?"
A noise approached from astern. A mixture of hissing and hissing, in between muffled explosions. A huge wall of fog covered the horizon and seemed to reach up into the sky. Thin, branching flashes of lightning twitched in the wall, the result of electrostatic charging from the enormous speed with which the methane-gas-water mixture was torn into the atmosphere. Now and then there were fireballs above the water when a few cubic meters of gas were ignited.
Sara and Alva went below deck with the last ones. Then the stern of the 'Maaru' simply sank away.
Five months before
New York City
Kampa was still staring. She didn't realize how helpless she looked. In the media, they had been showing the same pictures for hours. At the moment, it was Calcutta. On the roadside, piles of bloated corpses, swarms of flies, helpers in white suits, face masks.
Albert Camus came to her mind - it must have looked something like this in the Middle Ages during the great plague epidemics.
She had only been in office for 4 weeks, and then this. As if the water wars weren't bad enough.
Behind her, Caspian spoke up, "The staff is waiting."
"Yes, what else!" she says irritably. Of course, the staff is waiting. For 8 days, one special session has followed the other. Pure helplessness. However, there was always something new, but nothing added up to a picture.
Passenger ship 'Maaru‘
Lesser Antilles
"Tomorrow we were going to dock in Barbados." Da Sibo was pissed. This greasy captain was squirming like an eel.
"The shipping company has given instructions to stay on the open sea, Professor. We must avoid any risk. First and foremost, of course, in the interest of our passengers."
"You damned coward." Da Sibo began quietly. And then angrily and louder and louder, "No infections have been reported in Barbados yet. Then everyone here has their commitments and schedules. And another thing: How are you, how is your damn shipping company going to explain to the public that out there people are getting infected by the thousands and dying miserably, while here on your barge twenty of the best microbiologists are lying in the sun scratching their butts?" Then Soleyov asked this question; "Infection? How do you know it's an epidemic?"
Da Sibo just turned around and went aft. There they would all sit and chew over all the news for the hundredth time.
On the way, Sara intercepted him, "Man Alva, are you pulling a face," she grumbled, "Make some sunshine, we're about to have a video conference with New York, they want us on the crisis team."
He liked Sara, she is small, pretty and squeaky, but unfortunately also exhausting, because sometimes pushy and cheeky. But she is also the assistant of Prof. Elaine Mauters and thus occasionally quite useful. They used to work at the same institute in Pittsburgh, but knew each other only by sight before the cruise.
In the conference room, everyone was chatting away. It was loud, it stank of sweat and smoke. Da Sibo was probably the only one who was bothered by it. He looked suspiciously at the air-conditioning shaft. The system was on, but obviously hopelessly overloaded.
The still image on the monitor gave way to a friendly Asian face. Caspian Shen, of course, the UN chief's private secretary. He greeted everyone, introduced himself formally and gave a long-winded account of the facts known so far. Da Sibo's attention level dropped rapidly.
"Why is he doing this?" he mused, surrendering to the assumption that there were still new and uninformed participants at the conference.
"Now that we're all on the same page, we can move into the discussion. Before we do, I'd like to show you the connected sites." A world map appeared with a series of highlighted points.
"Man," Sara marveled, "that's at least 20, mature performance with that mess!"
The microphones were probably already open, so Shen immediately responded, "In fact, there are 22, and they're worldwide. We hope there will be more in the next few minutes."
A tired face appeared on the screen: "Anna Kampa," she introduced herself pointlessly. "Before the experts have their say, I would like to announce the result of today's council meeting. The formation of this crisis team is one thing. Here, in the first place, data will be collected in the largest possible worldwide association of institutes, aid organizations, etc. We want to understand in the first place what kind of infestation we are dealing with and how it can be combated. This is exclusively about the scientific aspect. Secondly: The logistical problems, such as the disposal of the dead, the care of the remaining population, the prevention or control of secondary epidemics, are the responsibility of other crisis teams. We will, of course, cooperate with each other. The scientific data collected will be sent centrally to the cruise ship 'Maaru'. I don't know whether to call it a fortunate circumstance, but at the time of the disease outbreak, an international conference on a current microbiological topic was being held on the ship. That means that there is a large number of our best virologists and epidemiologists on board there at the moment. The ship will continue to cruise in international waters and will not approach the mainland or any island. The 'normal' passengers and much of the crew will be flown out. Some additional equipment will be brought on board under all possible precautions, especially to cope with the flood of data. We may be able to bring some technicians on board later, but for now the risk of infection is too great. So you're on your own for now."
Da Sibo felt downright numb. Somehow, everything that had hit him in the last few days was far away and very theoretical. Now it affected him directly. He was a prisoner on this barge. A luxury prison, to be sure, but a prison. Others thought similarly: "Can't at least our families ... There's plenty of room here!" one woman rebelled.
"Weren't you listening?" came back angrily at once. Seconds later, the whole room roared in confusion. Prof. Mauters jumped on a chair and spread his arms. It took several more minutes before the noise died down. Mauters wanted to say something, but Kampa beat her to it.
"Thank you, Professor. Before you get any more excited, ladies and gentlemen, you should put yourself in the position of the people who are not lucky enough to be on a luxury liner in relative safety awaiting the end of the crisis. And as for the question about your families - each of you, of course, has the option to be flown out. I would just ask you to make that decision within the next 24 hours. For the rest of you, I think it's going to be a very long 'cruise'." Kampa looked seemingly calmly at the group of about fifty people in the conference room. If you looked closely, you could see her lower lip trembling.
"Today we will only hear some summary thoughts from Dr. Graber and Dr. Li on the latest facts and data that reached us yesterday and today. I have been asked to point out once again forcefully that most of the findings have rather the character of speculation. One can by no means speak of sound scientific work at this stage. But you know: extraordinary situations require ..." Kampa was visibly embarrassed to have resorted to such a commonplace.
"At this point, let's talk about brainstorming rather than scientific analysis. Please, Dr. Li."
A Chinese woman, by no means petite, appeared on the screen. Without any introduction, she began in a calm tone, "As you heard earlier, we still know next to nothing about this pandemic, except that it seems to have a lethality of close to or equal to 100 percent, which in itself is virtually inexplicable."
"Sorry to butt in again," Kampa spoke up. "I'd like to ask you to put this in more popular science terms, since there are government officials and other non-experts present at the moment."
"Of course, so that means that probably everyone who gets infected also dies. If that were the case, we are talking about a novelty. Then this epidemic, pandemic - call it what you will - would be the first disease that does not give at least ten percent of those infected a chance to survive. It is pointless for a pathogen to kill all of its infected hosts - that would mean that it would set its own chance of survival to zero if it killed all of the infected. We do not yet know if there are any individuals who are immune. We also have not yet been able to determine the incubation period, but it appears to be as extremely short as has ever been observed. We conclude that from the fact that the disease seems to have broken out virtually in several places in the world at the same time. Understand, if the pandemic, the disease, breaks out in one place, then it must spread to the other places ..." Li muttered under his breath. Into the silence burst a bass: "What was that? In several places at once? Why hasn't anyone talked about this yet?"
Li found her security again. "Because we only came across it recently. The fact is that the current outbreak occurred in three places within a few hours. It can't be explained by conventional, orthodox medical knowledge alone. However, there are two possible explanations. One would be this: There was an outbreak of the disease weeks or months ago, which then died down again. This has been observed before, for example with Ebola. There were outbreaks that depopulated some villages. Then the disease did not spread any further. But that was probably because there were no carriers left to carry the disease to the next villages. It could be that we have a similar case here, but with different backgrounds. If we find an earlier disease outbreak somewhere, it could explain how the simultaneous outbreaks occurred in three places. The virus first emerged in a weaker form, then mutated and moved on." You could tell she was no fan of speculation.
"Wait a minute!" Anna Kampa interrupted. "Just for my understanding−if we're already on Ebola, how do you explain the big outbreak in West Africa? When was that, in 2015? Nothing was dying back then, on the contrary, they had to fight the epidemic here for months with help from all over the world."
Doctor Li shook his head. "Initially, in spring 2014, we actually thought we were dealing with a new, much more virulent strain of Ebola. But that quickly turned out to be a mistake. The strain was known, and the explanation for the rapid spread of the epidemic was a bundle of causes. The new quality in the spread of the disease was primarily due to the religious cult of the dead in that corner of the world. In this cult, the living come into close physical contact with the sick and dead - the ideal route to infection. In addition, the outbreak occurred for the first time in a densely populated area with larger towns and not, as in the past, somewhere in the bush where at most a few hundred people lived in a few villages."
"But you could still educate people; teach them to isolate the sick and dead or take them to reception centers."
"You wouldn't believe how hard it is to fight against centuries-old traditions. On top of that, the people there were incited by the priests. They were made to believe that the sick and dead were only separated from their families because they wanted to remove organs from them."
"Well." Da Sibo had that look on his face again that only Sara understood. "Religiosity correlates with age, lack of intelligence and, especially here, lack of education."
"Yes, but imagine the situation when the number of infected people really exploded at the end of 2014. There were scenes hardly imaginable. In villages and towns, the sick and dead were carted from one hospital to another for hours, sometimes days, with virtually no way to find help because all the medical facilities that could take Ebola patients were hopelessly overcrowded."
"Doctor Li?" Sara asked quietly. "You were there then?"
The Chinese woman had herself under control. "With the 'Doctors Without Borders'. From the middle of 2014 until the end. That is - twelve thousand deaths later."
Bass spoke up again: "We've gotten pretty far off topic. Now what about the second option you promised us? I hope you're not going to tell us that someone intentionally put such a monstrosity out there in three places at once!"
Again, Mauters interjected, "It wouldn't be the first time in history that pathogens have been deliberately released."
"But that might be the last time, because humanity will be extinct." This time da Sibo saw the speaker, for he had jumped up: A gaunt hulk of over six feet, at least seventy years old, with a bird of prey face. At that moment, he also knew where he knew that voice from. It belonged to Dr. Søren Ringstrøm, professor of paleomicrobiology at the Smithsonian Institute in Washington. Alva had known him as a student and knew that his reputation for not avoiding controversy preceded him.
Li obviously had no intention of entering into a verbal clinch with the professor. She simply remained silent. Ringstrøm probably realized that the situation had been defused for the moment and sat down.
Anna Kampa could be seen again. "Since there are no facts on this yet, please you now, Dr. Graber!"
The featureless face of a man in his mid-fifties appeared. Graber cleared his throat several times and began, "We have been determining the causes of death for four days. We succeed in virtually every case, but it is as varied as it is confusing. Predominantly it's some kind of multiple organ failure, sometimes infarcts, internal bleeding - especially brain bleeding. But we have also found outright organ liquefaction, which is indeed reminiscent of Ebola, but only in a small proportion of cases. This is where we can most readily see what has happened - namely, the destruction of the cell structure, i.e., the cell walls. However, there is no common factor, indeed, we have not even managed to detect a virus or a bacterium. The disease usually begins with severe watery diarrhea, abdominal pain, vomiting, severe chest and lung pain, sore throat and cough. It's reminiscent of the initial clinical pictures of malaria, typhoid fever or yellow fever."
"A hemorrhagic fever?" That was Ringstrøm again.
"Yes, it's possible, but as I said, we haven't been able to detect a pathogen yet."
"And if it's neither a virus nor a bacterium?" Sibo heard himself ask in amazement. He had not been able to get the captain's question out of his head.
"Ah, Professor da Sibo." Graber grinned. "If the question hadn't come from you, I think I would have ignored it. So, what are you thinking about?"
"Nothing concrete," Sibo tried to row back then. "I just want us to keep all our options open and not get caught up in anything."
But too late, Ringstrøm was already standing again, "Well, well, Professor, no pinching now, you do have an idea - out with it!"
Knowing that Sibo had gone too far out on a limb. "Maybe some kind of poisoning or something completely new, we should just consider everything."
Now Ringstrøm had the occasion he had been looking for.
"So you're saying," he sneered, "that someone is running around with a lethal syringe, randomly murdering people by the thousands?" Before Sibo could answer, Kampa was oversized on the screen. "What is this, gentlemen, this is not a schoolyard. Professor da Sibo is right about one thing, though: we should keep all our options open. And if we're going to consider the possibility that this pandemic was deliberately triggered, we should also consider the possibility that some lunatic is poisoning or infecting thousands of people."
Ringstrøm sat down, shrugging his shoulders, and da Sibo breathed a sigh of relief.
Graber took the floor again: "Before I continue, I would like to say something about the euphemism that is still in use. There is still talk of thousands of dead, but that is probably the situation three or four days ago. In the meantime, we assume a few hundred thousand, there are estimates of one to two million worldwide at the present time. But the logistics crisis team can certainly say more about that. Now a few words about the course of the disease. Here, too, there are great differences, but also many similarities. Some patients simply die within a few minutes without any prior signs. These are the ones we assign to the category of multiple organ failure. Others complain hours beforehand of diffuse symptoms such as nausea, vomiting, pain of all kinds, especially abdominal pain, dizziness. Later, tremors, hyperkinesias, coordination and speech disorders, also psychological changes, especially aggressiveness and persecutory delusions occur. The latter symptoms are partly reminiscent of the changes seen in patients in the final stages of Huntington's disease - but at a pace never before observed. In fact, degenerative changes can be found in all of the patients' neurons. It is precisely these changes, which are more reminiscent of a cell metabolic disorder, that give us reason to doubt that we are dealing with a classical virus. I think Dr. Li would have found it by then. One more comment about the type of patient. It is usually the case that the old, the weak, and young children are affected first by mass illnesses. Here it looks like children are not affected and people beyond fifty are only affected to a certain extent. The middle-aged population is practically wiped out without exception."
Passenger ship 'Maaru‘
Da Sibo walked across the quarterdeck. Sara was already hanging on his arm again. "Did you actually notice this coincidence? Alva, I'm talking to you." She shook his arm.
"Sorry, I was in thought, what coincidence?"
"Don't you think it's strange that the world is experiencing the worst plague in living memory, and it just so happens that the entire cream of the crop of microbiology is vacationing on a cruise ship?"
"Well, first of all, not all the luminaries are on board here by a long shot, secondly, no one is on vacation here, but there is serious work going on, and thirdly, you seem to think we ignited this inferno so we could watch it in peace from here."
"That's exactly how the conspiracy theorists will see it."
"But everyone knows that it has become fashionable in recent years to hold multi-day conferences on cruise ships. There are now many shipping companies that specialize in this and have equipped their ships accordingly - with conference rooms of any size and also with the appropriate technology."
Alva's defense was weak because he knew she was right. She was always right about such things. They had only known each other for two weeks, but she had amazed him with her analyses from day one. She was by no means as clueless as she pretended to be, and she had turned many a screwy thesis from its head to its feet.
Meanwhile, they sat in his cabin and sipped red wine. He had to keep shaking his head at how naturally she had settled in with him. As assistant to the Pittsburgh institute director Mauters, she didn't have much to do here on board, and since she couldn't do nothing, she had joined the somewhat unworldly Alva da Sibo. There was whispering and snickering all over the ship, though neither cared much about it. It was also good to joke about a couple where one is almost two meters tall and the other just one fifty.
They watched television, but without really perceiving anything, because the images of mountains of corpses from all over the world were so similar that they hardly reached the people.
"When did this actually start exactly?"
Da Sibo startled. "Fourteen, no, 15 days ago, there were the first reports of mass infection in Bogota, shortly followed by the same from Dar es Salaam and Anchorage."
"What kind of mixture is that? Does anyone understand?"
"We are trying to find a connection, but there obviously isn't one. A central source of infection from which all three cities were infected would be obvious. We've checked everything, especially flight routes, but it's hopeless until we know the incubation period. If it really is a viral infection."
"You just can't get that out of your head, do you still believe it's poisoning?"
"No, not really, so and so doesn't fit together a lot of things."
"Unless you actually believe in a conspiracy, some kind of genocide, only bigger. One should ask oneself who would benefit from that. Only I can't think of anybody. Unless ..." Sara turned the wine glass and looked intently into it.
"See anything?" he asked, amused.
"I must be starting to go crazy. I shouldn't drink so much wine. But one more thing struck me. Mrs. Kampa talked about how it's already happened that people have deliberately caused epidemics. Has there really been anything like that?"
Alva shrugged her shoulders. "I don't think there are any really vouched-for cases. At least one attempt is historically verifiable. In the 18th century, blankets contaminated with smallpox virus were distributed to Indian tribes. Whether the outbreak of smallpox among the Indians afterwards was really triggered by the blankets or by natural transmission cannot be proven today. That was, by the way, at the siege of Fort Pitt, now Pittsburgh, where our institute is located. Then there were some outbreaks of disease in the mid-20th century, especially in India, that were suspected to have been deliberate. But nothing could be proven."
Sara still looked thoughtful. Then she shook off her thoughts and asked, "Tell me, there was already a pandemic in the near past that was caused by a virus. Can lessons learned from that be applied to the present case?"
"Yes and no. Valuable experience has been gained in the fight against the coronavirus from the beginning of 2020 until around 2024, especially in the research, production and distribution of vaccines and medicines. But that primarily involves the pharmaceutical industry, the WHO and the health authorities in each country. In what we are doing here, these experiences do not really help us. The viruses are too different. The coronavirus comes from a family of viruses that have been known since the 1960s. One could fall back on many investigation results of decades. Here it seems to be something completely new."
Sara stood up. She probably didn't want to continue the discussion.
"Shall we ask if there's anything sensible on the in-flight cinema today?"
Kediet Ijill
Mauritania
"How did that go wrong?" Kalner was furious.
"Nobody could have expected that. We protected ourselves against everything. There could be no uncontrolled outbreak. Everything was safe, only the idea that someone would do a self-experiment with the half-finished virus didn't occur to anyone." The lab director was offended.
"So why did O'Hara come up with this harebrained idea?"
"O'Hara was responsible for developing the vaccine. The results were not satisfactory. Yes, I measured him nonstop. He claimed the failures were because we could only test on experimental animals. He wanted us to capture some away from the locals. You remember, I asked."
"Yes, and I declined because we can't afford a fuss. For the local population, we are a peaceful research station for the local desert fauna and flora. We can't afford rumors about a few missing Mauritanians. What exactly happened?"
"O'Hara got two vaccinations three days apart. After another 10 days, he got infected and quarantined two days later. So far, all normal. Since it happened over the weekend and no one checks the unused quarantine station, it hasn't been detected."
"Go on!"
"The night after next, O'Hara broke out of self-imposed quarantine and flew by small jet to Nouâdhibou, wandered the alleys there for a few hours, and collapsed in a bar."
"Why? I mean, why did he run? He could have gotten treatment." Kalner had leaned forward.
Agah Bayari nodded. "We were wondering the same thing. We can only speculate. It's likely that the mental changes we observed in the lab monkeys are infinitely more severe in humans. He may have been delusional and that's why he flew to the coast."
"So what?"
"He died in the bar. Probably infected a few more people in a tourist group that left the next day. You know the rest."
Kalner thought. They had to leave as quickly as possible. But that was the smaller problem, they were prepared for that. He was much more worried about the reaction of his clients. He did not know how to explain to them that he had not foreseen the case that had occurred. He should have known that this unreliable pack of civilians could not be calculated.
"Damn eggheads," he growled. Then he straightened and reached for the phone. "Yes, Kalner here, prepare for evacuation. No, not red, just yellow, so noon-1 p.m. tomorrow."
Passenger ship 'Maaru‘
Lesser Antilles
The next morning the helicopters came.
And the patrol boats.
And the disease reached Europe.
"Andalusia, of all places. Spain has already closed all borders 5 days ago, all ports and airports. And yet ..."
They sat back in the conference room trying to digest the new news.
Kampa went on to say, "The strangest thing is that the epidemic did not break out in any port city in Spain, but in the middle of Andalusia, in Marmolejo, a sleepy nest on the edge of the Sierra Morena, with no airport. No industry to speak of, virtually no tourism, nothing." Desperation spoke from her voice.
Sara asked, "What does 'virtually no tourism' mean? Are there still ways of bringing it in?"
"We've only found one way. A rather strange guy from East Germany who drives to Marmolejo twice a year to visit an eccentric retired German dentist there."
"He's driving half of Europe by car instead of flying? That must be 3,000 kilometers." Alva was amazed.
"That also surprised us. But the simple reason is that he supplies his acquaintances and relatives with products from Spain, primarily olives and olive oil, ham, sausage, whiskey, and so on. Of course, he can't get rid of them by plane. We are in the process of examining the guy and his circle - so far no positive result. However, this man would be the ideal carrier, as his vacation there seems to consist of roaming the bars half the day, consuming beer and tappas in bulk, and of course meeting dozens of people."
Sara shook her head. "People are ..."
Anna Kampa wanted to change the subject.
First thing this morning, she had suggested calling the pandemic simply "the plague." Everyone had shrugged and accepted it. This name was as good as any other.
A lame guessing game began as to how the disease could break out in the middle of a hermetically sealed country.
A gong sounded, and Graber's sweaty face appeared on the monitor. "Can I speak right away? Yes? Then good morning to you all. That is, I don't know if it's a good morning ..."
"Hello?" Kampa was angry.
"Yes, yes, so I have news regarding the patient profile. We have evaluated the figures we have had so far and come to the following conclusion: Firstly, the lethality is not 100%, it is probably somewhere around 92-94%, which means that we always have individual patients who have survived the disease and are on the road to recovery. Secondly, there are definitely also people in the vulnerable age group who are immune, i.e. who do not become infected in the first place. We estimate 15-16%. That, of course, gives us hope of finding a vaccine. Thirdly, yesterday's assumption has been confirmed, i.e. children up to about 11,12 years do not get sick. From this age on, almost everyone gets infected. And here it comes: Women from menopause on are spared again." Graber was visibly proud.
"So it just affects all sexually mature people?" This was Ringstrøm again. "And then what about men and women of appropriate ages who have had sterilization?"
"We're not there yet." Now Graber was offended. "We can't do witchcraft."
"You better be." Ringstrøm was already in a fighting mood again.
Da Sibo suddenly realized that Sara was staring at him.
"What is it?"
"You know, last night when I went into the wine glass ..." she began. Sara was suddenly all excited.
"May we join in the lively discussion? Yes, the young lady next to Professor da Sibo!" Kampa was all head teacher.
Sara stood up, and suddenly she was no longer a babbling nag, but focused and analytical: "Sara Sander, assistant to Prof. Mauters," she introduced herself. "Last night we discussed the aspect of who would benefit from a terrorist action. A thought occurred to me that I initially dismissed. However, Dr. Graber's analyses seem to support that thought: If there is a group of people who would derive benefits from the destruction of the sexually mature population, it would be the members of the radical branch of the 'League.'"
Sara was sitting again. Kampa was still angry: "It's so obvious, and yet no one but Mrs. Sander has thought of it?"
"Hold on!" Ringstrøm spoke up. "People would have to expect to perish themselves. That would be pretty close to religious fanaticism, more like a kind of social suicide."
"If they were, they might have taken precautions, such as an antidote, vaccinations, isolation or ..." A young woman in a lab coat had been talking herself into a frenzy. "Besides, they're really fanatical enough, to..."
"Enough." Anna Kampa interrupted. "We're just speculating. Let everyone think about it. I'm putting the U.S. federal authorities in charge. I want them to look into whether this grouping had the capability for such an attack. More on that in the afternoon session. Next item on the agenda: the evacuation. Operations reported to me that everything is going according to plan. The 4800 passengers and most of the crew will be evacuated by 4 p.m. tomorrow. Can you confirm that, Captain Soleyov?"
"Yes, Mrs. Kampa. There was no resistance at all."
Da Sibo looked up in amazement. Resistance? Who had expected resistance? He looked at Sara. But she didn't seem to find it strange and followed the renewed discussion.
"... must be. This morning the news of your group on the 'Maaru' appeared in the press. The first angry comments have already appeared in the media. Some journalists have gone on the attack. I quote: 'The ladies and gentlemen scientists probably don't want to get their fingers dirty by looking for the killer virus on the spot.' It is probably better to think about it in the warm afternoon sun while having a drink by the pool. Maybe even one or two eggheads have something to do with this disaster.'"
Da Sibo literally felt the triumphant look of Sara on the right side of his face. He grinned.
"So you see that the mood is being set against you here. We have to expect that you will be attacked by vengeful groups who believe this press campaign. Or others trying to get on the ship because they think they are reasonably safe here. That's why the patrol boats. They will circle around the 'Maaru' day and night at least 100 meters away. The crews are armed, the boats are equipped with the latest technology, also against underwater attacks. Furthermore, the 'Maaru' will not approach the mainland or any of the islands of the Antilles. They are now 30 miles off Barbados. After evacuation and having taken on board the necessary equipment, Captain Solejow has instructions to go ashore at a distance of at least 50 miles."
A shocked silence. No one wanted to say anything, everyone realized once again that they would be trapped on the ship for the next days, weeks, maybe months.
In the silence, one could hear all the more clearly the swelling and dwindling sound of the helicopters, which were continuously fetching passengers from the two landing pads of the 'Maaru'.
"One more thing." Kampa spoke up again, "As of three hours ago, two teams have been quarantined: Team No. 1 is 16 scientists and lab technicians who are to reinforce your group on the 'Maaru'. Team No. 2 consists of 5 technicians, who are especially to install the equipment that will be flown in starting this afternoon. We have a few technicians on board who can maintain and expand the existing equipment. What we are facing today probably far exceeds the knowledge of our maintenance technicians. That's why we need the reinforcements as soon as possible. However, we need the incubation period to be able to complete the quarantine. Dr. Li and Dr. Graber: top priority for you and your teams. Any questions?"
"What did Soleyov mean by resistance?" Alva blew into his coffee pot.
"We discussed in the staff meeting whether there might be problems with the evacuation. Mauters was concerned that some passengers might refuse to leave the reasonably safe ship. But have all left voluntarily. They'd rather be home with their families and friends than here. Funny, isn't it?"
"Hmm, I don't know, but what interests me more: You mentioned something about the radical wing of the 'League' this morning. Everyone seemed to know what was meant. I've heard of the 'League' before, but the fact that they're showing radical tendencies now is news to me."
"Maybe you should stick your nose out of the lab once in a while. Then you'll get some of the important stuff, too. Didn't you hear about the series of attacks on sperm banks in France, Japan and Germany?"
He looked up in surprise, "Sure, but I didn't know they were. Until now, I just thought these people were cranky weirdos. Even this theatrical name: 'League of Reason'. Probably they think it's effective for the media. Go on, explain to an old lab rat what makes them tick."
Sara sat cross-legged on his bed again. Now she put the magazine aside. "I'll have to elaborate a bit: The 'League of Reason,' as its members call themselves, is the best-known group of a few dozen who have chosen a common enemy: the rapidly growing number of people living on Earth. Most of the problems humanity has faced for many years are attributed to overpopulation. Do you know the facts?"
"I know about it, of course, but only in passing. But you seem to know a lot about it!"
Now Sara was in her element.
"For many millennia, the number of people has increased very slowly. For about 300 years, the size of humanity has been increasing at an ever faster rate, and since the beginning of the 20th century, at a breathtaking pace. However, one phenomenon gave hope: in countries where the population became more prosperous and educated, the fertility rate really collapsed. This happened first in the countries of the Industrial Revolution, especially in England and Germany, then throughout Western Europe and the United States. Here, two developments confronted each other. On the one hand, the doubling of life expectancy due to the innovations of modern medicine, practical eradication of the great epidemics such as plague, typhus, cholera and smallpox. In addition, there was a reduction in infant mortality. On the other hand, the emerging prosperity eliminated the need to provide for one's own old age by having many children. The establishment of social networks reinforced this development. When, in the middle of the 20th century, the medical possibilities of contraception or relatively risk-free abortion were added, the birth rate fell below the maintenance level and has been at 1.2-1.4 children per woman for many years. The population in the industrialized countries began to shrink, but no problem, it could all be balanced out through controlled immigration. In the Third World countries, on the other hand, the population numbers really exploded. China, India, Pakistan, South America, and Africa had growth rates that threatened to exceed all limits. Here, however, certain measures began to take effect. China introduced the one-child policy around 1980, in India it was mass sterilization. In some countries it was a matter of course, according to the motto: Give them a modest level of prosperity, access to medicine and education, explain to them about the flowers and the bees, and the birth rate will drop by itself. This worked so well in the early 3rd millennium that researchers calculated the end of population growth for 2050 at about 9.5-10 billion people. The problem seemed to be largely solving itself. Then, at the beginning of the 3rd millennium, another phenomenon appeared with the growing population, the water wars. At first, it was really about access to water. In areas where water was scarce, countries at the headwaters of rivers simply built dams, cutting off the states at the lower reaches from vital wetlands. There was shouting, the UN intervened, and after tough negotiations there was some sort of compromise. Gradually, the idea took hold that it would be quicker to take matters into one's own hands. Mercenary troops were a dime a dozen since the end of the Cold War, weapons could be bought everywhere, and to solve the problem it was easier to plant a bomb at the dam than to call the UN. This gave rise to veritable conflagrations of smaller and larger conflicts, first in Africa and later in South America and Asia. For a long time, it was no longer just about water, but about resources of all kinds - mineral resources, rainforest, arable land and pasture. The political and military developments were so confusing that there was practically no way to intervene. Whenever one thought to have solved a conflict, a new one flared up somewhere. The situation in the developing countries became so dramatic that the international community withdrew completely from the crisis areas. The large and small aid organizations had to pull out across the board. The population was impoverished at a rapid pace. The modest progress that had been made in improving living conditions in the countries of the Third World was undone. People fell back into old patterns."
"And you got all that in your head?"
"That's what I lectured on when I was studying political science, but unfortunately it's not much use to me here."
"Good, go on!" Da Sibo was all ears.
"Already at the turn of the millennium, there were repeated reports of large groups of civil war and economic refugees, especially from Africa, the Near and Middle East, and the poor countries of southern Europe. They were generalized and called boat people because they usually came to Europe in adventurous, overloaded boats across the sea. North America had a decades-long problem with illegal immigrants from Latin America anyway. But what started around 2014 was called the modern migration of peoples. Millions of utterly desperate people pushed their way into the industrialized countries by every conceivable route, especially overland. In addition, millions more took advantage of the situation to set up criminal structures in the rich countries or simply to exploit the asylum laws for their own personal enrichment. Most countries, of course, tried to fight back tooth and nail; especially in Europe, many states were able to seal themselves off for a long time and quite successfully. Due to the sheer number of refugees, the unsecured or insufficiently secured borders were now simply overrun. It came what had to come. Now vast numbers of parties and organizations sprang up, using the fears of the citizens of the rich countries to spread their own ideologies. Everything from the defense of the fatherland to the fight against alienation and racial mixing could be heard - from biblical visitation and God's punishment to demands for the use of weapons of mass destruction. Up to this point, the whole thing was just bizarre and macabre, but then in 2027 there was a new quality. Within 2 days, 5 seed banks were blown up in Europe and Asia."
"Those were human seed banks, weren't they?"
"Yes, they had deliberately chosen banks where only human sperm, eggs and stem cells were stored. Institutes in which animal and plant genetic material was stored were not to be touched. The intention was to preserve divine creation, and that includes flora and fauna."
"But blowing up those banks was completely pointless!"
"Don't be silly, Alva, virtually every terrorist action is meaningless in itself, except for the fact of raising awareness and spreading fear. And the 'League' succeeded in doing that, because it claimed responsibility in a letter of confession. The 'League of Reason' was already known worldwide, but until then it had been non-violent. And this is where the violent wing of the 'League' came forward, which was talked about this morning."
"What are their goals?"
"The 'League', like many other groups, has postulated overpopulation as the main reason for humanity's problems. This is nothing new, only the 'League' goes a step further in many ways. Their most famous demand is forced chemical sterilization in developing countries, simply by adding the appropriate chemicals to drinking water across the board. They tout it as the cheapest, fastest and most humane form of birth control in the Third World."
"The Nazis would have been delighted." Da Sibo was flabbergasted.
"Unfortunately, these groups are not entirely wrong in calling for radical measures against the unchecked multiplication of human beings. The optimistic assumptions that birth rates will drop dramatically if global poverty is combated have underestimated an important factor. This works only in societies where religions are not omnipotent. Indeed, none of the major churches permits or recommends birth control by means of contraception, even though it is repeatedly emphasized that it is permitted in 'exceptional cases.'"
"I know," Alva growled. "This is pure stupidity. None of the church officials seem to be able to realize what they're doing to this planet."
"And that's also why groups like the 'League' are calling for forced sterilizations in these countries. You wouldn't believe how many politicians secretly or openly support that."
"In the foreseeable future, there is unlikely to be a majority for such a mess. Hence, I suppose, your thought that there might be some grouping that wants to accomplish it by way of that out there." Alva made a vague hand gesture.
"I've been thinking again. I think Ringstrøm is right." Sara glanced at him. "The whole thing is too diffuse, too vague. It hits everybody. If I thought like them and had the means to build a virus like that, I'd invent something that wouldn't attack me."
"Or create ways to protect myself, vaccines, a cure, or special quarantine facilities." Da Sibo sat up. "It's all too speculative for me. I have another question: what did Ringstrøm mean by 'religious fanaticism' in connection with the 'League'?"
"Well, that's another complicated story. It has something to do with the Tea Party movement, which at the beginning of the third millennium tried to exert an increasingly massive influence on U.S. politics. On the surface, it was an organization of 'upstanding US citizens'. In reality, it was an attempt to counter the loss of power of the religious right in the U.S."
"But where is the connection with this 'League of Reason'?"
"A large part of the supporters of the Tea Party movement are so-called creationists. These are people who fundamentally demonize Darwinism. They take the divine act of creation literally and reject all scientific knowledge about the history of the development of the universe, the earth and the origin and evolution of life on it. From the circles of these people are recruited mainly the members of the 'League'. These creationists are unfortunately not a marginal phenomenon in the USA, but about 80 million Americans count themselves to the fundamental Christians who interpret the Bible literally. In other words, precisely among these obdurate creationists."
"It's always the same." Da Sibo was really angry now.
"What do you mean, Alva?" asked Sara.
"I don't like to talk about it that much, especially not with people of faith. I then always have the feeling that it will be interpreted as arrogance."
"But you can tell me. You know I'm an atheist too," Sara smiled.
"It's about how I think about religion. I don't mean the belief in some supernatural beings, deities. There are supposed to be about 3300 gods in the heads of people within about 4000 religions. As far as I am concerned, everyone can believe what he wants, whether in any forest gods, in Allah, Jesus Christ, Shiva, Buddha or any other god that has ever been invented in the history of mankind. What makes me so angry are these institutions of faith, the religions. Or call it church, for my sake. From the beginning, these institutions have been exclusively tools for gaining and maintaining power. It does not matter whether the shaman of some primitive people demands the best part of the hunting prey or the most beautiful girl of the tribe as payment for his rain, fertility or hunting spells. Or whether the large religions extorted the church tithe also still from the poorest medieval farmer or the modern church tax secures the livelihood of the church functionaries. And if these funds are no longer sufficient, church institutions are maintained as a matter of course with the state funds of all taxpayers. The same applies to the financing of any church festivals. And in the constitutions of these states then something is written like 'separation of church and state'! Altogether the belief in deities is the biggest lie in the history of mankind. The enormous blood trail, which left the religions of all colors since beginning of the existence of mankind, cost hundreds millions the life. Just think of the many who were tortured, slain, desecrated and burned in the name of some god in the religious wars and pogroms of the Middle Ages and modern times. This is still happening today, see Africa, South America and Asia."
"Your views remind me of my father. He sometimes called religiosity 'the greatest placebo of mankind' or simply a 'collective pathological behavioral disorder.' But have you always brought this attitude to religions, or did you develop it only as a scientist?" Sara was really curious now.