The Energy Challenge E-Book

Heiko Von der Gracht

• Herausgeber: REDLINE
• Kategorie: Wissenschaft und neue Technologien
• Sprache: Englisch
• Veröffentlichungsjahr: 2015

Seitenzahl: 317

Beschreibung

Be future-proof with the energy licence! Making the economy and society fit for the future begs the question: how will the energy needs of tomorrow be met? What measures need to be implemented by companies and communities today in order to be future-proof tomorrow? Current developments like power line conflicts, the phase-out of nuclear energy and meeting growing supply expectations demonstrate that, to solve this strategic challenge, decision-makers from business, politics and the wider community have to develop new sets of skills and foresight competencies. In this book, the authors set out the possible scenarios, their consequences and the essential factors for securing tomorrow's energy supply. They also provide the information needed by readers to earn their 'energy licence'. It's a licence designed to qualify the holder to recognise key developments, trends and options for the energy future, and to take the necessary action within their own organisations.

Leseprobe

Deutsche Nationalbibliothek Bibliographical Information

The Deutsche Nationalbibliothek lists this publication in the Deutsche Nationalbibliografie.

Detailed bibliographical information is available online at http://dnb.d-nb.de

Questions and comments to:

[email protected]

1st Edition 2016

© 2016 by Redline-Verlag, Münchner Verlagsgruppe GmbH, Munich,

Nymphenburger Straße 86

D-80636 Munich

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© of the original edition 2015 by Redline Verlag, Münchner Verlagsgruppe GmbH, Munich

All rights reserved, in particular the rights to copying, distribution and translation. No part of the publication may be reproduced in any form (by photocopying, microfilming or any other process) or stored, copied or distributed by means of electronic systems without the written consent of the publisher.

Translation: Patricia Goren WORDS, Berlin (Editing: Guy Jones, Stockholm)

Cover Illustrations: Maria Wittek and Isabella Dorsch, Munich

Cover illustration: shutterstock.com

Typesetting and E-Book: Grafikstudio Foerster, Belgern

ISBN Print 978-3-86881-627-3

ISBN E-Book (PDF) 978-3-86414-889-7

ISBN E-Book (EPUB, Mobi): 978-3-86414-888-0

Contents

Welcome

Preface to The License

1 You Can’t Manage What You Can’t See

2 The Future is a Wrong-way Driver

3 Looking Beyond the Horizon: Four Scenarios

4 The Trend Universe: Tomorrow’s Opportunities

5 Liberate Your Mind: Wild Cards

6 Strategic Implications: Shaping the Future

7 The Transfer: From Knowledge to Competence

Afterword

Acknowledgements

About the Authors

Literature

Endnotes

Welcome

Shaping the Future!

New forms of energy, complex regulations, growing investment needs, volatility: the energy sector is facing a huge global challenge. The good news is that this situation provides unique opportunities of potentially historic proportions. It’s also where the application of strategic creativity opens up previously unseen possibilities to positively shape a sustainable future for the entire industry.

Looking at the past tells us that times calling for radical change are also times of innovation. In particular, creativity is fuelled when crises make it necessary to rethink existing structures. The KPMG study “­Energy – Quo Vadis?” marks the beginning of a series of publications, handbooks, studies and cases for future-proofing, published by the KMPG Global Energy Institute EMA. It provides decision-makers in the energy industry with professional support for taking a sustainable approach to opportunities.

This management book builds on the “Quo Vadis” study and shows how to implement a strategic foresight process by applying a toolkit of scenarios, wild cards, trends, uncertainties and more. The range of options is extensive, and is designed to facilitate intensive analysis and use of the challenges and opportunities that lie ahead.

Our goal is simple: to help companies deepen their skills in shaping the future of their organisations for a sustainable tomorrow.

The KPMG Energy & Natural Resources Network:

Wilfried Lauriano do Rego, KPMG in France, [email protected]

Michael Salcher, KPMG in Germany, [email protected]

Francesco Gagliardi, KPMG in Italy, [email protected]

Hans Bongartz, KPMG in the Netherlands, [email protected]

Peter Kiss, KPMG in the Nordics, [email protected]

Alberto Martin Rivals, KPMG in Spain, [email protected]

David Gascoigne, KPMG in UK, [email protected]

Preface to The License

“What is a government without energy? (…) Nothing – nothing at all.”1

Mark Twain

Will the lights be switched off soon? No-one can be entirely sure, although we do know for certain that they have become more expensive to switch on. But customers are not the only people with reasons to complain; even suppliers are worried. Previously prosperous energy companies are fighting to survive and, in shades reminiscent of some old peasant rebellion, whole districts protest against power lines. Municipal energy suppliers and public utility companies are anxiously asking: which business model has a future?

The writing is on the wall. Everyone who is even remotely involved in energy knows that the energy sector is experiencing its greatest structural upheaval since Thomas Alva Edison. Never before in the history of energy generation and supply have higher sums been invested in new technologies, and nor have so many government programmes been redrawn in the face of such unprecedented uncertainty. Energy is vital. Energy is state-supportive. Energy is the business of the future.

Energy-related planning is not done in years but in decades. The figures are in the billions, not the millions. Thinking is global rather than national. Energy is the key topic of the coming decades for those with a future-looking mind. Up until now, the debate has tended to focus on questions like: where does energy come from, and how does it get supplied to the user? Now, however, we keep asking ourselves: will we be able to manage the change needed to keep energy flowing? Can we master the energy challenge?

People who follow this sometimes heated discussion can find lots of information. But there is always a nagging doubt that the lofty visions are not underpinned by any kind of masterplan. Not to mention the euphemistic term ‘security of supply’. Too often, what we actually experience is hectic improvisation, disruption, and the permanent revision of plans which had only just been declared ‘irrefutable’. This leads to greater uncertainty for everyone involved.

An angry sales strategist, for example, once complained in an informal round-table discussion that every driver is required to have a licence but that, unfortunately, no licence is needed to deal with the practicalities or politics of the energy industry. That is the crux of the matter.

Every day, many thousands of industry experts, politicians and stakeholders restlessly plan, calculate, control, politicise, decide, approve and invest daily for the energy of the future and the future of energy. But when it comes to the most important thing in our lives, the future, none of them have a license.

Of course this is not entirely true: There are certainly some expert futurologists in the meantime. But how many do you personally know?

Each expert has a degree, a certificate, a diploma for his or her professional specialisation. For the energy future, though, we have none. It’s therefore the reason for writing this book: as a licence for the future.

As we know, being issued a licence for any vehicle is evidence of the holder’s ability to master a complex machine in what is usually a multi-dimensional environment. Similar to the energy industry, in fact. So it makes sense to concentrate on the machine (your own organisation) and the environment (the market) in aiming for your own ‘licence’. Our aim with this book is to make sure that, by the time you’ve reached the final page, you will have earned your licence for future competence. This energy licence is for board members and leaders, managers, strategists, sales experts, marketing managers and directors. In other words the decision-makers of today and tomorrow.

Are you ready for your first driving lesson?

1You Can’t Manage What You Can’t See

“Every generation needs a new revolution.”

Thomas Jefferson, Third President of the US

The right tool at the right time

When you discuss the future with decision-makers in industry and politics, at some point there is always an objection about its invisibility: nobody is able to see the future. How can you manage something that you can’t see?

It is true that none of us has ever seen the future – with the exception, perhaps, of Nostradamus. But this is precisely the reason why decision-makers use tools to make the future visible: for example, prognoses.

Everyone has at some point followed a trend extrapolation, which has been created for an annual budget or a sales prognosis for the next quarter. Everyone has also at some time peered into the future while packing their holiday suitcase. What will the weather be like? Better play it safe and take that warm sweater along. Do you really think that these examples are poor methods of forecasting? You may be surprised.

On the other hand, you probably aren’t surprised. You know only too well how it works in practice. Decision-makers confirm time and time again, for example, that they do not consider trend extrapolation to be the most innovative and reliable method. But it does provide an initial point of reference and it’s fast and cost-effective. Or is it? That is precisely the problem. It isn’t, at least not in every case.

In a relatively stable environment, linear extrapolation of a trend can provide a relatively reliable view of the future. This is because the formula for the future is: more of the same, same old-same old, time stability hypothesis. Can you see the logical error?

We know that we are living in times of dynaxity – in other words, a period that is simultaneously extremely dynamic and highly complex. Some even speak of a VUCA era – an age of volatility, uncertainty, complexity and ambiguity. On the other hand, we apply methods of forecasting that only function in a stable environment?

Methods like trend extrapolation don’t work in turbulent times.

In turbulent times, the ‘king of the hill’ is not a trend, but a structural break, a strategic surprise and the wild card (more about that later).