The Little Book of Stock Market Cycles E-Book

Jeffrey A. Hirsch

• Herausgeber: John Wiley & Sons
• Kategorie: Fachliteratur
• Serie: Little Books. Big Profits
• Sprache: Englisch
• Veröffentlichungsjahr: 2012

Seitenzahl: 197

Beschreibung

Jeffrey Hirsch discusses how to capture market-beating returns by following specific stock market cycles While predicting the direction of the stock market at any given point is difficult, it's a fact that the market exhibits well-defined and sometimes predictable patterns. While cycles do not repeat exactly all of the time, statistical evidence suggests that cyclical tendencies are very strong and should not be ignored by investors. The Little Book of Stock Market Cycles will show you how to profit from these recurring stock market patterns and cycles. Written by Jeffrey Hirsch, President of the Hirsch Organization and Editor-in-Chief of the Stock Trader's Almanac, this reliable resource explains why these cycles occur, provides the historical evidence behind them, and shows you how to capture consistent profits from them moving forward. In addition to describing his most widely followed cycles and patters, Hirsch also discusses both longer term boom-bust economic cycles and shorter term tendencies involving the best days, weeks, and months of the year to trade the market. * The methods found here follow everything from presidential election cycles to the "Santa Claus" effect * Written by Jeffrey Hirsch, the pre-eminent authority on market cycles and seasonal patterns * The strategies explored are easy-to-implement, and based on research that has proven profitable over the course of time For investors looking to beat the buy-and-hold philosophy, The Little Book of Stock Market Cycles will provide simple, actionable ideas that have stood the test of time and consistently outperformed the market.

Leseprobe

Contents

Foreword

Introduction

Chapter One: Cutting through the Bull

Describing the Markets

Talking in Seculars

Let’s Shoot Some Bull

Seeing What Tomorrow Brings

Chapter Two: War and Peace

Creatures of Habit

War: What Is It Good For?

To Boldly Go Where the Dow Has Never Gone

Chapter Three: A Century of Booms and Busts

As the Century Turns

World War I

The Roaring Twenties

And Then Depression Set In

World War II

The Consumer Boom

The Vietnam War Heats Up Inflation

That 1970s Stagflation

The Information Revolution

The Greatest Boom

Lather, Rinse, Repeat

Chapter Four: The Coming Boom

Dot-com Bust versus 1929 Crash

The Global War on Terror

Bubblicious Housing

Four Horsemen of the Economy

The Colt of the Economy

We’re Not There Yet

Five Years to Go

Chapter Five: Your Portfolio Gets Political

How the Government Manipulates the Economy to Stay in Power

Post-Election-Year Syndrome: Paying the Piper

Midterm Election Years: Where Bottom Pickers Find Paradise

Preelection Years: No Dow Losers Since 1939

Election Year Perspectives and Observations

Chapter Six: Open Season for Stocks

The “Best Six Months” Trading Strategy

Times They Are a Changing

Fourth-Quarter Market Magic

Two Market Phenomena in Perfect Harmony

Seasonally Well Adjusted

Chapter Seven: Aura of the Witch

Financial Incantations

Seasons of the Witch

Manic Monday and Freaky Friday

Witches’ Brew

Chapter Eight: Autumn Planting

August Annals

September Scenarios

October Occasions

Sowing the Seeds of Gains

Chapter Nine: Winter of Content

Navigating November

December Delivers

Wall Street’s Only Free Lunch

When Santa Fails to Call

January Jubilee

Best Three Months

Chapter Ten: Spring Harvest

February Findings

March Madness

April Action

Chapter Eleven: Summer Doldrums

May Matters

June Juju

July Jolt

Chapter Twelve: Celebrate Good Times

Santa Claus Comes to Town

Martin Luther King Jr. Day

Negative Presidents’ Day

The Luck of the Irish

A “Better” Good Friday

Memorial Day and the Stock Market

Few Fireworks on Independence Day

Trading the Labor Day Markets

Sell Rosh Hashanah, Buy Yom Kippur, Sell Passover

Trading the Thanksgiving Market

Chapter Thirteen: Don’t Sell on Friday

Most Gains Occur on Monday and Tuesday

Monday, Most Favored S&P 500 Day

Bear Hurts Monday and Friday

NASDAQ Strong Like Bull

Traders Take Lunch, Too

Chapter Fourteen: Picking the Ripe Trade

A Chance for the Individual Trader

For Everything There Is a Season

It’s All about the Timing

Taking a Good, Hard Look at the Indicators

Have Sound Trading Discipline

Acknowledgments

Advertisement

Little Book Big ProfitsSeries

In the Little Book Big Profits series, the brightest icons in the financial world write on topics that range from tried-and-true investment strategies to tomorrow’s new trends. Each book offers a unique perspective on investing, allowing the reader to pick and choose from the very best in investment advice today.

Books in the Little Book Big Profits series include:

The Little Book That Still Beats the Market by Joel Greenblatt

The Little Book of Value Investing by Christopher Browne

The Little Book of Common Sense Investing by John C. Bogle

The Little Book That Makes You Rich by Louis Navellier

The Little Book That Builds Wealth by Pat Dorsey

The Little Book That Saves Your Assets by David M. Darst

The Little Book of Bull Moves by Peter D. Schiff

The Little Book of Main Street Money by Jonathan Clements

The Little Book of Safe Money by Jason Zweig

The Little Book of Behavioral Investing by James Montier

The Little Book of Big Dividends by Charles B. Carlson

The Little Book of Bulletproof Investing by Ben Stein and Phil DeMuth

The Little Book of Commodity Investing by John R. Stephenson

The Little Book of Economics by Greg Ip

The Little Book of Sideways Markets by Vitaliy N. Katsenelson

The Little Book of Currency Trading by Kathy Lien

The Little Book of Stock Market Profits by Mitch Zacks

The Little Book of Big Profits from Small Stocks by Hilary Kramer

The Little Book of Trading by Michael W. Covel

The Little Book of Alternative Investments by Ben Stein and Phil DeMuth

The Little Book of Valuation by Aswath Damodaran

The Little Book of Emerging Markets by Mark Mobius

The Little Book of Hedge Funds by Anthony Scaramucci

The Little Book of the Shrinking Dollar by Addison Wiggin

The Little Book of Bull’s Eye Investing by John Mauldin

The Little Book of Stock Market Cycles by Jeffrey Hirsch

Copyright © 2012 by Jeffrey Hirsch. All rights reserved.

Published by John Wiley & Sons, Inc., Hoboken, New Jersey.

Published simultaneously in Canada.

No part of this publication may be reproduced, stored in a retrieval system, or transmitted in any form or by any means, electronic, mechanical, photocopying, recording, scanning, or otherwise, except as permitted under Section 107 or 108 of the 1976 United States Copyright Act, without either the prior written permission of the Publisher, or authorization through payment of the appropriate per-copy fee to the Copyright Clearance Center, Inc., 222 Rosewood Drive, Danvers, MA 01923, [phone], fax [phone], or on the Web at www.copyright.com. Requests to the Publisher for permission should be addressed to the Permissions Department, John Wiley & Sons, Inc., 111 River Street, Hoboken, NJ 07030, [phone], fax [phone], or online at www.wiley.com/go/permissions.

Limit of Liability/Disclaimer of Warranty: While the publisher and author have used their best efforts in preparing this book, they make no representations or warranties with respect to the accuracy or completeness of the contents of this book and specifically disclaim any implied warranties of merchantability or fitness for a particular purpose. No warranty may be created or extended by sales representatives or written sales materials. The advice and strategies contained herein may not be suitable for your situation. You should consult with a professional where appropriate. Neither the publisher nor author shall be liable for any loss of profit or any other commercial damages, including but not limited to special, incidental, consequential, or other damages.

For general information on our other products and services or for technical support, please contact our Customer Care Department within the United States at [phone], outside the United States at [phone] or fax [phone].

Wiley also publishes its books in a variety of electronic formats. Some content that appears in print may not be available in electronic books. For more information about Wiley products, visit our web site at www.wiley.com.

ISBN 978-1-118-27011-0 (cloth); 978-1-18-28349-3 (ebk); 978-1-118-28485-8 (ebk); 978-1-118-28624-1 (ebk)

For Jennifer and our two boys, Samson and Nathaniel

Foreword

It might seem odd that a fundamentally oriented investor would write the Foreword for a book devoted to technical analysis. After all, many fundamental investors view technical analysis as nothing more than fortune-telling, and technical analysts as wizards who should be locked up and kept away from the children (and investors/traders who behave like children). But here I am, a fundamental investor, doing just that.

The fact is that the business of investing is complicated. Think of it as a pyramid with each angle of the pyramid representing a different approach—you’ve got the fundamentals, valuation, and the technicals.

It is the influence on equities called the “technicals” that Jeff Hirsch captures so eloquently and succinctly in The Little Book of Stock Market Cycles.

Jeff’s thoughtful book takes a cue from Winston Churchill, who once wrote that “the farther back you can look, the farther forward you are likely to see.”

As Jeff writes, the lessons of stock market history are invaluable. The study of patterns from the past makes future trends clearer, just as the avoidance of history makes them potentially lethal to your investments’ well-being.

Mr. Market is not an easy guy to get to know. Analysis of market history and the rhythm of financial cycles isn’t a simple task, and especially not the way Jeff does it. Determining the roles that human behavior, holidays, elections, seasons, and the calendar play in influencing the stock market’s direction requires careful observation and critical thinking. Even the role of peace and war is fair game in Jeff’s analysis.

And then there is Jeff’s outlandish May 2010 prophesy of a super boom in stocks—in which he feels the Dow Jones Industrial Average may rise to 38,820 by 2025!

Learn why Jeff is ringing in a new bull market beginning in the 2017−2018 period. His conviction is high and his reasoning appears sound.

In The Little Book of Stock Market Cycles, Jeff presents a commonsense message and invaluable lessons for how to take advantage of time-proven market patterns. Both individual and institutional investors should take notice.

After all, those who cannot remember the past are condemned to repeat it!

Douglas A. Kass

Seabreeze Partners Management Inc.