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- Herausgeber: John Wiley & Sons
- Kategorie: Fachliteratur
- Serie: Stock Trader's Almanac
- Sprache: Englisch
- Veröffentlichungsjahr: 2016
The 50th Anniversary Edition of the best data in the business, updated for 2017 Stock Trader's Almanac 2017 provides the cleanest historical data in the business to give traders and investors an advantage in the market. This 50th Anniversary Edition is consistent with decades of the Stock Trader's Almanac showing you the cycles, trends, and patterns you need to know in order to invest with minimum risk and maximum profit. Updated with the latest numbers, this indispensable guide is organized in a calendar format to provide monthly and daily reminders, including upcoming opportunities to grab and dangers to avoid. Proprietary strategies include the Hirsch Organization's Best Six Months Switching Strategy, the January Barometer, and the Four-Year Presidential Election/Stock Market Cycle, arming you with the tools savvy investors use to achieve their market goals. Trusted by Barron's, The Wall Street Journal, the New York Times, and other respected market authorities, this indispensable guide has helped generations of investors make smart market moves. This new edition provides the same level of invaluable guidance, with the latest data straight from the vault. * Access the most trusted historical market data available * Identify patterns and trends you won't find anywhere else * Get advance notice about upcoming risks and opportunities * Bring accuracy to your forecasting and confidence to your investing Analytical tools are essential to successful investing, but they're only as useful as the data is accurate. Even the most beautifully designed model cannot forecast accurately based on incomplete, misleading, or inaccurate numbers; data quality the bedrock of your entire investing strategy, and when it comes to data, cleanliness is next to profitability. Get the edge this year with the best data in the business, plus a wealth of valuable strategies in the Stock Trader's Almanac 2017.
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ISBN: 978-1-119-24775-3 (paper)
ISBN: 978-1-119-24776-0 (ebk)
ISBN: 978-1-119-24777-7 (ebk)
This Fiftieth Anniversary Edition could be dedicated to none other than:
Yale Hirsch
If I have seen further, it is by standing upon the shoulders of giants.
—Sir Isaac Newton
Yale has been a giant to us all. We have proudly stood on his shoulders, magically ridden his coattails, and humbly attempted to build upon his genius. He created this masterpiece 50 years ago and its longevity is his legacy. His iconic thinking and thought leadership will live forever. At 92 and still rocking, he continues to test our intelligence, integrity, imagination, and mettle. Mensch, mentor, enduring source of inspiration, and loving father, thank you for teaching us to strive for excellence with a keen attention to detail and a nose for behavioral changes in finance, markets, economics, and sociology—not to mention a zest for wit.
Thank you to all those who helped us research and build the Stock Trader's Almanac legacy over the years and to those readers and colleagues that inspired, discussed and debated with us.
A special thanks and acknowledgement to those below who had a profound and direct impact on the evolution, improvement and production of the Almanac:
Scott Barrie (R.I.P.), George Brooks, Judd Brown, Bob Cardwell, Joseph Childrey, Sy Harding (R.I.P.), Davida Hirsch, Leslie Hirsch, Dave Kamm, Peter Lynch, Chris Mistal, Victor Niederhoffer, John Person, Betty Ross (R.I.P.), Daniel Turov, Pamela van Giessen, Larry Williams.
CONTENTS
INTRODUCTION TO THE FIFTIETH ANNIVERSARY EDITION
NOTABLE EVENTS
2017 OUTLOOK
2017 STRATEGY CALENDAR
JANUARY ALMANAC
FEBRUARY ALMANAC
MARCH ALMANAC
APRIL ALMANAC
MAY ALMANAC
JUNE ALMANAC
JULY ALMANAC
AUGUST ALMANAC
SEPTEMBER ALMANAC
OCTOBER ALMANAC
NOVEMBER ALMANAC
DECEMBER ALMANAC
2018 STRATEGY CALENDAR
DIRECTORY OF TRADING PATTERNS AND DATABANK
DOW JONES INDUSTRIALS MARKET PROBABILITY CALENDAR 2017
RECENT
DOW JONES INDUSTRIALS MARKET PROBABILITY CALENDAR 2017
S&P 500 MARKET PROBABILITY CALENDAR 2017
RECENT
S&P 500 MARKET PROBABILITY CALENDAR 2017
NASDAQ COMPOSITE MARKET PROBABILITY CALENDAR 2017
RECENT
NASDAQ COMPOSITE MARKET PROBABILITY CALENDAR 2017
RUSSELL 1000 INDEX MARKET PROBABILITY CALENDAR 2017
RUSSELL 2000 INDEX MARKET PROBABILITY CALENDAR 2017
DECENNIAL CYCLE: A MARKET PHENOMENON
PRESIDENTIAL ELECTION/STOCK MARKET CYCLE: THE 183-YEAR SAGA CONTINUES
DOW JONES INDUSTRIALS BULL AND BEAR MARKETS SINCE 1900
STANDARD & POOR'S 500 BULL and BEAR MARKETS SINCE 1929 NASDAQ COMPOSITE SINCE 1971
JANUARY DAILY POINT CHANGES DOW JONES INDUSTRIALS
FEBRUARY DAILY POINT CHANGES DOW JONES INDUSTRIALS
MARCH DAILY POINT CHANGES DOW JONES INDUSTRIALS
APRIL DAILY POINT CHANGES DOW JONES INDUSTRIALS
MAY DAILY POINT CHANGES DOW JONES INDUSTRIALS
JUNE DAILY POINT CHANGES DOW JONES INDUSTRIALS
JULY DAILY POINT CHANGES DOW JONES INDUSTRIALS
AUGUST DAILY POINT CHANGES DOW JONES INDUSTRIALS
SEPTEMBER DAILY POINT CHANGES DOW JONES INDUSTRIALS
OCTOBER DAILY POINT CHANGES DOW JONES INDUSTRIALS
NOVEMBER DAILY POINT CHANGES DOW JONES INDUSTRIALS
DECEMBER DAILY POINT CHANGES DOW JONES INDUSTRIALS
A TYPICAL DAY IN THE MARKET
THROUGH THE WEEK ON A HALF-HOURLY BASIS
TUESDAY MOST PROFITABLE DAY OF WEEK
NASDAQ STRONGEST LAST 3 DAYS OF WEEK
S&P DAILY PERFORMANCE EACH YEAR SINCE 1952
NASDAQ DAILY PERFORMANCE EACH YEAR SINCE 1971
MONTHLY CASH INFLOWS INTO S&P STOCKS
MONTHLY CASH INFLOWS INTO NASDAQ STOCKS
NOVEMBER, DECEMBER, AND JANUARY: YEAR'S BEST THREE-MONTH SPAN
NOVEMBER THROUGH JUNE: NASDAQ'S EIGHT-MONTH RUN
DOW JONES INDUSTRIALS ANNUAL HIGHS, LOWS, & CLOSES SINCE 1901
S&P 500 ANNUAL HIGHS, LOWS, & CLOSES SINCE 1930
NASDAQ ANNUAL HIGHS, LOWS, & CLOSES SINCE 1971
RUSSELL 1000 ANNUAL HIGHS, LOWS, & CLOSES SINCE 1979
RUSSELL 2000 ANNUAL HIGHS, LOWS, & CLOSES SINCE 1979
DOW JONES INDUSTRIALS MONTHLY PERCENT CHANGES SINCE 1950
DOW JONES INDUSTRIALS MONTHLY POINT CHANGES SINCE 1950
DOW JONES INDUSTRIALS MONTHLY CLOSING PRICES SINCE 1950
STANDARD & POOR'S 500 MONTHLY PERCENT CHANGES SINCE 1950
STANDARD & POOR'S 500 MONTHLY CLOSING PRICES SINCE 1950
NASDAQ COMPOSITE MONTHLY PERCENT CHANGES SINCE 1971
NASDAQ COMPOSITE MONTHLY CLOSING PRICES SINCE 1971
RUSSELL 1000 INDEX MONTHLY PERCENT CHANGES SINCE 1979
RUSSELL 1000 INDEX MONTHLY CLOSING PRICES SINCE 1979
RUSSELL 2000 INDEX MONTHLY PERCENT CHANGES SINCE 1979
RUSSELL 2000 INDEX MONTHLY CLOSING PRICES SINCE 1979
10
BEST
DAYS BY PERCENT AND POINT
10
WORST
DAYS BY PERCENT AND POINT
10
BEST
WEEKS BY PERCENT AND POINT
10
WORST
WEEKS BY PERCENT AND POINT
10
BEST
MONTHS BY PERCENT AND POINT
10
WORST
MONTHS BY PERCENT AND POINT
10
BEST
QUARTERS BY PERCENT AND POINT
10
WORST
QUARTERS BY PERCENT AND POINT
10
BEST
YEARS BY PERCENT AND POINT
10
WORST
YEARS BY PERCENT AND POINT
DOW JONES INDUSTRIALS ONE-YEAR SEASONAL PATTERN CHARTS SINCE 1901
S&P 500 ONE-YEAR SEASONAL PATTERN CHARTS SINCE 1930
NASDAQ, RUSSELL 1000 & 2000 ONE-YEAR SEASONAL PATTERN CHARTS SINCE 1971
STRATEGY PLANNING AND RECORD SECTION
PORTFOLIO AT START OF 2017
ADDITIONAL PURCHASES
ADDITIONAL PURCHASES
SHORT-TERM TRANSACTIONS
LONG-TERM TRANSACTIONS
INTEREST/DIVIDENDS RECEIVED DURING 2017
BROKERAGE ACCOUNT DATA 2017
WEEKLY PORTFOLIO PRICE RECORD 2017 (FIRST HALF)
WEEKLY PORTFOLIO PRICE RECORD 2017 (SECOND HALF)
WEEKLY INDICATOR DATA 2017 (FIRST HALF)
WEEKLY INDICATOR DATA 2017 (SECOND HALF)
MONTHLY INDICATOR DATA 2017
PORTFOLIO AT END OF 2017
IF YOU DON'T PROFIT FROM YOUR INVESTMENT MISTAKES, SOMEONE ELSE WILL
PERFORMANCE RECORD OF RECOMMENDATIONS
INDIVIDUAL RETIREMENT ACCOUNT (IRA): MOST AWESOME MASS INVESTMENT INCENTIVE EVER DEVISED
G. M. LOEB'S “BATTLE PLAN” FOR INVESTMENT SURVIVAL
G. M. LOEB'S INVESTMENT SURVIVAL CHECKLIST
EULA
Guide
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INTRODUCTION TO THE FIFTIETH ANNIVERSARY EDITION
We are pleased, proud, humbled, and amazed to introduce the Fiftieth Anniversary Edition of the Stock Trader's Almanac. The Almanac provides you with the necessary tools to invest successfully in the twenty-first century.
J. P. Morgan's classic retort, “Stocks will fluctuate,” is often quoted with a wink-of-the-eye implication that the only prediction one can make about the stock market is that it will go up, down, or sideways. Many investors agree that no one ever really knows which way the market will move. Nothing could be further from the truth.
We discovered that while stocks do indeed fluctuate, they do so in well-defined, often predictable patterns. These patterns recur too frequently to be the result of chance or coincidence. How else do we explain that since 1950 all the gains in the market were made during November through April, compared to a loss May through October? (See page 52.)
The Almanac is a practical investment tool. It alerts you to those little-known market patterns and tendencies on which shrewd professionals enhance profit potential. You will be able to forecast market trends with accuracy and confidence when you use the Almanac to help you understand:
How our presidential elections affect the economy and the stock market—just as the moon affects the tides. Many investors have made fortunes following the political cycle. You can be sure that money managers who control billions of dollars are also political cycle watchers. Astute people do not ignore a pattern that has been working effectively throughout most of our economic history.
How the passage of the Twentieth Amendment to the Constitution fathered the January Barometer. This barometer has an outstanding record for predicting the general course of the stock market each year, with only eight major errors since 1950, for an 87.7% accuracy ratio. (See page 16.)
Why there is a significant market bias at certain times of the day, week, month, and year.
Even if you are an investor who pays scant attention to cycles, indicators, and patterns, your investment survival could hinge on your interpretation of one of the recurring patterns found within these pages. One of the most intriguing and important patterns is the symbiotic relationship between Washington and Wall Street. Aside from the potential profitability in seasonal patterns, there's the pure joy of seeing the market very often do just what you expected.
The Stock Trader's Almanac
