32,99 €
Mehr erfahren.
- Herausgeber: John Wiley & Sons
- Kategorie: Fachliteratur
- Serie: Stock Trader's Almanac
- Sprache: Englisch
- Veröffentlichungsjahr: 2017
The best data in the business, updated for 2018 Stock Trader's Almanac 2018 provides the cleanest historical data in the business to give traders and investors an advantage in the market. The 2018 edition is consistent with decades of the Stock Trader's Almanac showing you the cycles, trends, and patterns you need to know in order to invest with minimum risk and maximum profit. Updated with the latest numbers, this indispensable guide is organized in a calendar format to provide monthly and daily reminders, including upcoming opportunities to grab and dangers to avoid. Proprietary strategies include the Hirsch Organization's Best Six Months Switching Strategy, the January Barometer, and the Four-Year Presidential Election/Stock Market Cycle, arming you with the tools savvy investors use to achieve their market goals. Trusted by Barron's, The Wall Street Journal, the New York Times, and other respected market authorities, this indispensable guide has helped generations of investors make smart market moves. This new edition provides the same level of invaluable guidance, with the latest data straight from the vault. * Access the most trusted historical market data available * Identify patterns and trends you won't find anywhere else * Get advance notice about upcoming risks and opportunities * Bring accuracy to your forecasting and confidence to your investing Analytical tools are essential to successful investing, but they're only as useful as the data is accurate. Even the most beautifully designed model cannot forecast accurately based on incomplete, misleading, or inaccurate numbers; data quality is the bedrock of your entire investing strategy, and when it comes to data, cleanliness is next to profitability. Get the edge this year with the best data in the business, plus a wealth of valuable strategies in the Stock Trader's Almanac 2018.
Sie lesen das E-Book in den Legimi-Apps auf:
Seitenzahl: 102
Ähnliche
Copyright © 2018 by John Wiley & Sons, Inc. All rights reserved.
Published by John Wiley & Sons, Inc., Hoboken, New Jersey.
Editor in Chief
Editor at Large
Director of Research
Production Editor
No part of this publication may be reproduced, stored in a retrieval system, or transmitted in any form or by any means, electronic, mechanical, photocopying, recording, scanning, or otherwise, except as permitted under Section 107 or 108 of the 1976 United States Copyright Act, without either the prior written permission of the Publisher, or authorization through payment of the appropriate per-copy fee to the Copyright Clearance Center, 222 Rosewood Drive, Danvers, MA 01923, 978-750-8400, fax 978-646-8600, or on the Web at www.copyright.com. Requests to the Publisher for permission should be addressed to the Permissions Department, John Wiley & Sons, Inc., 111 River Street, Hoboken, NJ 07030, 201-748-6011, fax 201-748-6008, or online at www.wiley.com/go/permissions.
Limit of Liability/Disclaimer of Warranty: While the publisher and the author have used their best efforts in preparing this book, they make no representations or warranties with respect to the accuracy or completeness of the contents of this book and specifically disclaim any implied warranties of merchantability or fitness for a particular purpose. No warranty may be created or extended by sales representatives or written sales materials. The advice and strategies contained herein may not be suitable for your situation. You should consult with a professional where appropriate. Neither the publisher nor the author shall be liable for any loss of profit or any other commercial damages, including but not limited to special, incidental, consequential, or other damages.
For general information about our other products and services, please contact our Customer Care Department within the United States at 800-762-2974, outside the United States at 317-572-3993, or fax at 317-572-4002.
Wiley publishes in a variety of print and electronic formats and by print-on-demand. Some material included with standard print versions of this book may not be included in e-books or in print-on-demand. If this book refers to media such as a CD or DVD that is not included in the version you purchased, you may download this material at http://booksupport.wiley.com. For more information about Wiley products, visit our website at www.wiley.com.
ISBN: 978-1-119-38426-7 (paper) ISBN: 978-1-119-38428-1 (ePDF) ISBN: 978-1-119-38429-8 (ePub)
This Fifty-First Edition is respectfully dedicated to:
Louis G. Navellier
Louie is Chairman and Founder of Navellier & Associates, Inc. In 1980 he began publishing MPT Review, a stock advisory newsletter for individuals that featured his quantitative analysis on growth stocks. In 1987 he started managing private accounts for high-net-worth individuals, and shortly thereafter for public plans. Since then, Navellier & Associates has guided thousands of investors and institutions by applying its disciplined, quantitative investment process to a broad range of equity products. Louie manages approximately $2 billion in assets. He also writes six investment newsletters focused on growth investing: Blue Chip Growth, Emerging Growth, Dividend Growth, Family Trust, High Velocity Stocks and Platinum Growth. His free Stock/ETF/Dividend Grader is super handy and his free Weekly Marketmail is nonpareil. Louie is always sharing his market outlook and analysis on Bloomberg, Fox News and CNBC. Louie has been an industry stalwart for nearly 40 years. He is a true believer in and user of seasonality and market cycles. His stocks, portfolios and funds rock and he has been a great friend.
INTRODUCTION TO THE FIFTY-FIRST EDITION
Once again we have the honor of introducing the Fifty-First Edition of the Stock Trader's Almanac. The Almanac provides you with the necessary tools to invest successfully in the twenty-first century.
J. P. Morgan's classic retort, “Stocks will fluctuate,” is often quoted with a wink-of-the-eye implication that the only prediction one can make about the stock market is that it will go up, down, or sideways. Many investors agree that no one ever really knows which way the market will move. Nothing could be further from the truth.
We discovered that while stocks do indeed fluctuate, they do so in well-defined, often predictable patterns. These patterns recur too frequently to be the result of chance or coincidence. How else do we explain that since 1950 all the gains in the market were made during November through April, compared to a loss May through October? (See page 50.)
The Almanac is a practical investment tool. It alerts you to those little-known market patterns and tendencies on which shrewd professionals enhance profit potential. You will be able to forecast market trends with accuracy and confidence when you use the Almanac to help you understand:
How our presidential elections affect the economy and the stock market—just as the moon affects the tides. Many investors have made fortunes following the political cycle. You can be sure that money managers who control billions of dollars are also political cycle watchers. Astute people do not ignore a pattern that has been working effectively throughout most of our economic history.
How the passage of the Twentieth Amendment to the Constitution fathered the January Barometer. This barometer has an outstanding record for predicting the general course of the stock market each year, with only nine major errors since 1950, for an 86.6% accuracy ratio. (See page 16.)
Why there is a significant market bias at certain times of the day, week, month, and year.
Even if you are an investor who pays scant attention to cycles, indicators, and patterns, your investment survival could hinge on your interpretation of one of the recurring patterns found within these pages. One of the most intriguing and important patterns is the symbiotic relationship between Washington and Wall Street. Aside from the potential profitability in seasonal patterns, there's the pure joy of seeing the market very often do just what you expected.
The Stock Trader's Almanac is also an organizer. Its wealth of information is presented on a calendar basis. The Almanac puts investing in a business framework and makes investing easier because it:
Updates investment knowledge and informs you of new techniques and tools.
Is a monthly reminder and refresher course.
Alerts you to both seasonal opportunities and dangers.
Furnishes a historical viewpoint by providing pertinent statistics on past market performance.
Supplies forms necessary for portfolio planning, record keeping, and tax preparation.
The WITCH icon signifies THIRD FRIDAY OF THE MONTH on calendar pages and alerts you to extraordinary volatility due to the expiration of equity and index options and index futures contracts. Triple-witching days appear during March, June, September, and December.
The BULL icon on calendar pages signifies favorable trading days based on the S&P 500 rising 60% or more of the time on a particular trading day during the 21-year period January 1996 to December 2016.
A BEAR icon on calendar pages signifies unfavorable trading days based on the S&P falling 60% or more of the time for the same 21-year period.
Also, to give you even greater perspective, we have listed next to the date of every day that the market is open the Market Probability numbers for the same 21-year period for the Dow (D), S&P 500 (S), and NASDAQ (N). You will see a “D,” “S,” and “N” followed by a number signifying the actual Market Probability number for that trading day, based on the recent 21-year period. On pages 121–128, you will find complete Market Probability Calendars, both long-term and 21-year for the Dow, S&P, and NASDAQ, as well as for the Russell 1000 and Russell 2000 indices.
Other seasonalities near the ends, beginnings, and middles of months—options expirations, around holidays, and other significant times—as well as all FOMC Meeting dates are noted for Almanac investors' convenience on the weekly planner pages. All other important economic releases are provided in the Strategy Calendar every month in our e-newsletter, Almanac Investor, available at our website, www.stocktradersalmanac.com.
One-year seasonal pattern charts for Dow, S&P 500, NASDAQ, Russell 1000, and Russell 2000 appear on pages 171 to 173. There are three charts each for Dow and S&P 500 spanning our entire database starting in 1901 and one each for the younger indices. As 2018 is a midterm election year, each chart contains typical midterm year performance compared to all years.
The Notable Events on page 6 provides a handy list of major events of the past year that can be helpful when evaluating things that may have moved the market. Over the past few years, our research had been restructured to flow better with the rhythm of the year. This has also allowed us more room for added data. Again, we have included historical data on the Russell 1000 and Russell 2000 indices. The Russell 2K is an excellent proxy for small and mid-caps, which we have used over the years, and the Russell 1K provides a broader view of large caps. Annual highs and lows for all five indices covered in the Almanac appear on pages 149–151, and we've tweaked the Best & Worst section.
In order to cram in all this material, some of our Record Keeping section was cut. We have converted many of these paper forms into computer spreadsheets for our own internal use. As a service to our faithful readers, we are making these forms available at our website, www.stocktradersalmanac.com.
Midterm election years have been the second worst year of the four-year cycle, while eighth years of decades have been the second best, so 2018 promises to be laced with crosscurrents. The last nine eighth years of decades appear on page 24. You can find all the market charts of midterm elections since the Depression on page 26, “Midterm Election Years: Where Bottom Pickers Find Paradise” on page 30, “Prosperity More Than Peace Determines the Outcome of Midterm Congressional Races” on page 32, and “Why a 50% Dow Gain Is Possible From Its 2018 Low to Its 2019 High” on page 34.
Our “Super Boom Update: 2010 Forecast On Track for Dow 38820 By 2025” appears on page 40, followed by “Culturally Enabling Paradigm Shifting Technologies Poised to Fuel the Next Super Boom” on page 42. For the first time in the Almanac we show how “Summer Market Volume Doldrums Drives Worst Six Months” on page 42.
On page 76 is our Best Investment Book of the Year, Relationship Investing: Stock Market Therapy for Your Money,by Jeffrey S. Weiss, CMT (Skyhorse Publishing). Other top books are listed on page 116. Sector seasonalities include several consistent shorting opportunities and appear on pages 92–96.
We are constantly searching for new insights and nuances about the stock market and welcome any suggestions from our readers.
Have a healthy and prosperous 2018!
NOTABLE EVENTS
2016
Apr 3
Panama Papers detail 200K+ entities used for illegal purposes by noted personalities and heads of state
May 19
EgyptAir Flight 804 from Paris to Cairo crashes over Mediterranean killing all 66 people on board
Jun 1
Gotthard Base Tunnel, world's longest and deepest railway tunnel, opens after 2 decades work
Jun 7
Kurdish rebels bomb central Istanbul targeting a police bus killing 12, injuring 51
Jun 8
Kurdish rebel car bomb in Midyat targeting police office, 5 killed (2 police) 30 injured
Jun 12
Gunman kills 49 wounds 58 in Orlando Pulse nightclub terrorist/hate crime shooting after 3-hour standoff
Jun 23
UK votes in favor of Brexit referendum to leave the European Union
Jun 28
ISIL suspected in terror attack on Atatürk Airport, Istanbul, killing 45 injuring ~230
Jul 1
Latvia becomes 35
th
member of OECD
Jul 4
NASA's Juno spacecraft enters Jupiter's orbit begins 20-month survey of Jupiter
Jul 14
ISIS Bastille Day attack in Nice, France kills 77 when a truck plowed through a crowd
Jul 26
Solar Impulse 2 becomes the first solar-powered aircraft to circumnavigate the Earth
Aug 5-21
2016 Summer Olympics held in Rio de Janeiro, Brazil
Aug 31
Brazilian Senate votes 61–20 to impeach and remove President Dilma Rousseff from office
Sep 3
US & China (40% of world carbon emissions) formally join Paris climate agreement
Sep 8
NASA launches OSIRIS-REx, 1
st
asteroid sample return mission expected back with samples 2023
Sep 9
North Korea conducts 5
th
& reportedly largest nuclear test
Sep 30
