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- Herausgeber: John Wiley & Sons
- Kategorie: Fachliteratur
- Serie: Stock Trader's Almanac
- Sprache: Englisch
- Veröffentlichungsjahr: 2020
Grab your very own crystal ball for the 2021 financial markets The 2021 Stock Trader's Almanac is your shortcut to understanding the cycles, trends, and patterns that will define stock trading in 2021. Based on strategies that have outperformed the S&P 500 by over 325% since 2001, the Almanac offers you proven and proprietary trading strategies, including Hirsch Holdings' "Best Six Months Switching Strategy," the January Barometer, the Four-Year Presidential Election/Stock Market Cycle, and top Sector Seasonalities. The Almanac has been trusted by Barron's, the Wall Street Journal, the New York Times, and countless men and women alike since 1968. Organized in calendar format to keep you on top of upcoming opportunities you can't afford to miss, this book will demonstrate each day why it's relied upon by top traders, investors, and money managers. Perfect for stock trading novices, seasoned market pros, and those who have yet to dip their toe into the lucrative world of stock trading, the 2021 Stock Trader's Almanac is your ticket to a successful 2021.
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Table of Contents
COVER
TITLE PAGE
COPYRIGHT
INTRODUCTION TO THE FIFTY-FOURTH EDITION
2021 OUTLOOK
2021 STRATEGY CALENDAR
JANUARY ALMANAC
JANUARY’S FIRST FIVE DAYS: AN EARLY WARNING SYSTEM
THE INCREDIBLE JANUARY BAROMETER (DEVISED 1972): ONLY TEN SIGNIFICANT ERRORS IN 70 YEARS
JANUARY BAROMETER IN GRAPHIC FORM
DOWN JANUARYS: A REMARKABLE RECORD
FEBRUARY ALMANAC
MARKET BEHAVIOR UNDER NEW PRESIDENTS
MARKET CHARTS OF POST–PRESIDENTIAL ELECTION YEARS
POST-ELECTION YEAR PERFORMANCE BY PARTY
MARCH ALMANAC
POST-ELECTION YEARS: PAYING THE PIPER
THE DECEMBER LOW INDICATOR: A USEFUL PROGNOSTICATING TOOL
HOW TO TRADE BEST MONTHS SWITCHING STRATEGIES
APRIL ALMANAC
DOW JONES INDUSTRIALS ONE-YEAR SEASONAL PATTERN CHARTS SINCE 1901
S&P 500 ONE-YEAR SEASONAL PATTERN CHARTS SINCE 1930
NASDAQ, RUSSELL 1000 & 2000 ONE-YEAR SEASONAL PATTERN CHARTS SINCE 1971
MAY ALMANAC
SUMMER MARKET VOLUME DOLDRUMS DRIVE WORST SIX MONTHS
TOP PERFORMING MONTHS: STANDARD & POOR’S 500 AND DOW JONES INDUSTRIALS
“BEST SIX MONTHS”: STILL AN EYE-POPPING STRATEGY
MACD-TIMING TRIPLES “BEST SIX MONTHS” RESULTS
JUNE ALMANAC
TOP PERFORMING NASDAQ MONTHS
GET MORE OUT OF NASDAQ’S “BEST EIGHT MONTHS” WITH MACD TIMING
TRIPLE RETURNS, FEWER TRADES: BEST 6 + 4–YEAR CYCLE
JULY ALMANAC
FIRST MONTH OF QUARTERS IS THE MOST BULLISH
2019 DAILY DOW POINT CHANGES (DOW JONES INDUSTRIAL AVERAGE)
DON’T SELL STOCKS ON MONDAY OR FRIDAY
AUGUST ALMANAC
A RALLY FOR ALL SEASONS
TAKE ADVANTAGE OF DOWN FRIDAY/ DOWN MONDAY WARNING
MARKET FARES BETTER UNDER DEMOCRATS; DOLLAR HOLDS UP UNDER REPUBLICANS
REPUBLICAN CONGRESS & DEMOCRATIC PRESIDENT IS BEST FOR THE MARKET
SEPTEMBER ALMANAC
MARKET GAINS MORE ON SUPER-8 DAYS EACH MONTH THAN ON ALL 13 REMAINING DAYS COMBINED
A CORRECTION FOR ALL SEASONS
FIRST-TRADING-DAY-OF-THE-MONTH PHENOMENON
OCTOBER ALMANAC
SECTOR SEASONALITY: SELECTED PERCENTAGE PLAYS
SECTOR INDEX SEASONALITY STRATEGY CALENDAR
MARKET BEHAVIOR THREE DAYS BEFORE AND THREE DAYS AFTER HOLIDAYS
NOVEMBER ALMANAC
FOURTH-QUARTER MARKET MAGIC
TRADING THE THANKSGIVING MARKET
AURA OF THE TRIPLE WITCH—4TH QUARTER MOST BULLISH: DOWN WEEKS TRIGGER MORE WEAKNESS WEEK AFTER
DECEMBER ALMANAC
MOST OF THE SO-CALLED JANUARY EFFECT TAKES PLACE IN THE LAST HALF OF DECEMBER
JANUARY EFFECT NOW STARTS IN MID-DECEMBER
WALL STREET’S ONLY “FREE LUNCH” SERVED BEFORE CHRISTMAS
IF SANTA CLAUS SHOULD FAIL TO CALL, BEARS MAY COME TO BROAD AND WALL
2022 STRATEGY CALENDAR
DIRECTORY OF TRADING PATTERNS AND DATABANK
DOW JONES INDUSTRIALS MARKET PROBABILITY CALENDAR 2021
RECENT DOW JONES INDUSTRIALS MARKET PROBABILITY CALENDAR 2021
S&P 500 MARKET PROBABILITY CALENDAR 2021
RECENT S&P 500 MARKET PROBABILITY CALENDAR 2021
NASDAQ COMPOSITE MARKET PROBABILITY CALENDAR 2021
RECENT NASDAQ COMPOSITE MARKET PROBABILITY CALENDAR 2021
RUSSELL 1000 INDEX MARKET PROBABILITY CALENDAR 2021
RUSSELL 2000 INDEX MARKET PROBABILITY CALENDAR 2021
DECENNIAL CYCLE: A MARKET PHENOMENON
PRESIDENTIAL ELECTION/STOCK MARKET CYCLE: THE 187-YEAR SAGA CONTINUES
DOW JONES INDUSTRIALS BULL AND BEAR MARKETS SINCE 1900
STANDARD & POOR’S 500 BULL AND BEAR MARKETS SINCE 1929 NASDAQ COMPOSITE SINCE 1971
DOW JONES INDUSTRIALS 10-YEAR DAILY POINT CHANGES: JANUARY AND FEBRUARY
DOW JONES INDUSTRIALS 10-YEAR DAILY POINT CHANGES: MARCH AND APRIL
DOW JONES INDUSTRIALS 10-YEAR DAILY POINT CHANGES: MAY AND JUNE
DOW JONES INDUSTRIALS 10-YEAR DAILY POINT CHANGES: JULY AND AUGUST
DOW JONES INDUSTRIALS 10-YEAR DAILY POINT CHANGES: SEPTEMBER AND OCTOBER
DOW JONES INDUSTRIALS 10-YEAR DAILY POINT CHANGES: NOVEMBER AND DECEMBER
A TYPICAL DAY IN THE MARKET
THROUGH THE WEEK ON A HALF-HOURLY BASIS
TUESDAY MOST PROFITABLE DAY OF WEEK
NASDAQ STRONGEST LAST 3 DAYS OF WEEK
S&P DAILY PERFORMANCE EACH YEAR SINCE 1952
NASDAQ DAILY PERFORMANCE EACH YEAR SINCE 1971
MONTHLY CASH INFLOWS INTO S&P STOCKS
MONTHLY CASH INFLOWS INTO NASDAQ STOCKS
NOVEMBER, DECEMBER AND JANUARY: YEAR’S BEST THREE-MONTH SPAN
NOVEMBER THROUGH JUNE: NASDAQ’S EIGHT-MONTH RUN
DOW JONES INDUSTRIALS ANNUAL HIGHS, LOWS & CLOSES SINCE 1901
S&P 500 ANNUAL HIGHS, LOWS & CLOSES SINCE 1930
NASDAQ ANNUAL HIGHS, LOWS & CLOSES SINCE 1971
DOW JONES INDUSTRIALS MONTHLY PERCENT CHANGES SINCE 1950
DOW JONES INDUSTRIALS MONTHLY POINT CHANGES SINCE 1950
DOW JONES INDUSTRIALS MONTHLY CLOSING PRICES SINCE 1950
STANDARD & POOR’S 500 MONTHLY PERCENT CHANGES SINCE 1950
STANDARD & POOR’S 500 MONTHLY CLOSING PRICES SINCE 1950
NASDAQ COMPOSITE MONTHLY PERCENT CHANGES SINCE 1971
NASDAQ COMPOSITE MONTHLY CLOSING PRICES SINCE 1971
RUSSELL 1000 INDEX MONTHLY PERCENT CHANGES SINCE 1979
RUSSELL 2000 INDEX MONTHLY PERCENT CHANGES SINCE 1979
10 BEST DAYS BY PERCENT AND POINT
10 WORST DAYS BY PERCENT AND POINT
10 BEST WEEKS BY PERCENT AND POINT
10 WORST WEEKS BY PERCENT AND POINT
10 BEST MONTHS BY PERCENT AND POINT
10 WORST MONTHS BY PERCENT AND POINT
10 BEST QUARTERS BY PERCENT AND POINT
10 WORST QUARTERS BY PERCENT AND POINT
10 BEST YEARS BY PERCENT AND POINT
10 WORST YEARS BY PERCENT AND POINT
NOTES
STRATEGY PLANNING AND RECORD SECTION
PORTFOLIO AT START OF 2021
ADDITIONAL PURCHASES
SHORT-TERM TRANSACTIONS
LONG-TERM TRANSACTIONS
INTEREST/DIVIDENDS RECEIVED DURING 2021
BROKERAGE ACCOUNT DATA 2021
WEEKLY PORTFOLIO PRICE RECORD 2021 (FIRST HALF)
WEEKLY INDICATOR DATA 2021 (FIRST HALF)
MONTHLY INDICATOR DATA 2021
PORTFOLIO AT END OF 2021
IF YOU DON’T PROFIT FROM YOUR INVESTMENT MISTAKES, SOMEONE ELSE WILL
PERFORMANCE RECORD OF RECOMMENDATIONS
INDIVIDUAL RETIREMENT ACCOUNT (IRA): MOST AWESOME MASS INVESTMENT INCENTIVE EVER DEVISED
G. M. LOEB’S “BATTLE PLAN” FOR INVESTMENT SURVIVAL
G. M. LOEB’S INVESTMENT SURVIVAL CHECKLIST
END USER LICENSE AGREEMENT
Guide
Cover Page
Table of Contents
Begin Reading
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STOCK TRADER’S ALMANAC 2021
Jeffrey A. Hirsch & Christopher Mistal
Copyright © 2021 by John Wiley & Sons, Inc. All rights reserved.
Published by John Wiley & Sons, Inc., Hoboken, New Jersey.
Editor in Chief
Jeffrey A. Hirsch
Editor Emeritus
Yale Hirsch
Director of Research
Christopher Mistal
No part of this publication may be reproduced, stored in a retrieval system, or transmitted in any form or by any means, electronic, mechanical, photocopying, recording, scanning, or otherwise, except as permitted under Section 107 or 108 of the 1976 United States Copyright Act, without either the prior written permission of the Publisher, or authorization through payment of the appropriate per-copy fee to the Copyright Clearance Center, 222 Rosewood Drive, Danvers, MA 01923, 978-750-8400, fax 978-646-8600, or on the Web at www.copyright.com. Requests to the Publisher for permission should be addressed to the Permissions Department, John Wiley & Sons, Inc., 111 River Street, Hoboken, NJ 07030, 201-748-6011, fax 201-748-6008, or online at www.wiley.com/go/permissions.
Limit of Liability/Disclaimer of Warranty: While the publisher and the author have used their best efforts in preparing this book, they make no representations or warranties with respect to the accuracy or completeness of the contents of this book and specifically disclaim any implied warranties of merchantability or fitness for a particular purpose. No warranty may be created or extended by sales representatives or written sales materials. The advice and strategies contained herein may not be suitable for your situation. Yo u should consult with a professional where appropriate. Neither the publisher nor the author shall be liable for any loss of profit or any other commercial damages, including but not limited to special, incidental, consequential, or other damages.
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ISBN: 978-1-119-77876-9 (paper)
ISBN: 978-1-119-77878-3 (ePDF)
ISBN: 978-1-119-77877-6 (ePub)
INTRODUCTION TO THE FIFTY-FOURTH EDITION
Once again, we have the honor of introducing the new edition of the Stock Trader’s Almanac. The Almanac provides you with the necessary tools to invest successfully in the twenty-first century.
J.P. Morgan’s classic retort “Stocks will fluctuate” is often quoted with a wink-of-the-eye implication that the only prediction one can make about the stock market is that it will go up, down, or sideways. Many investors agree that no one ever really knows which way the market will move. Nothing could be further from the truth.
We discovered that while stocks do indeed fluctuate, they do so in well-defined, often predictable patterns. These patterns recur too frequently to be the result of chance or coincidence. How else do we explain that since 1950 the Dow has gained 20,535.44 points during November through April compared to just 3,777.95 May through October? (See page 52.)
The Almanac
