Trade Stocks and Commodities with the Insiders E-Book

Larry Williams

• Herausgeber: John Wiley & Sons
• Kategorie: Fachliteratur
• Serie: Wiley Trading Series
• Sprache: Englisch
• Veröffentlichungsjahr: 2011

Seitenzahl: 285

Beschreibung

"The way that Big Money got to be Big Money was by also being the 'Smart Money', and so it is worth paying attention to how the Big Money traders behave. That's the essence of what Larry Williams has to teach us in this book. And it's not just what the Smart Money says or thinks, but how they behave in terms of their trading that we should pay attention to. Larry shows us how to listen to that message." --Tom McClellan, Editor of The McClellan Market Report "Finally, an insider's take on what really goes on behind the scenes in commodity trading. Larry writes his view of trading, as only he knows it, from his twenty-five years of experience." --James Altucher, author of Trade Like a Hedge Fund Successful trader Larry Williams reveals industry secrets that help investors and traders successfully invest and trade side-by-side with the largest commercial interests in the world. You'll be introduced to the COT (Commitment of Traders) report, the best resource for achieving trading success, learn exactly what the information it contains means, and plan for maximizing profits by acting on reported actions.

Leseprobe

Table of Contents

Title Page

Copyright Page

Introduction

FIRST FALLACY—“THESE GUYS KNOW SOMETHING”

SECOND FALLACY—“IF THEY KNEW SOMETHING, THEY’D TELL YOU”

MY WAKE-UP CALL

THE SUPERPOWERS

HISTORICAL PERSPECTIVE ON COMMODITY AND FUTURES TRADING

ACKNOWLEDGMENTS

CHAPTER 1 - Meet Your New Investment Partner and Adviser

EVOLVING MISSION AND RESPONSIBILITIES

HOW THE CFTC IS ORGANIZED

WHO OUR BUDDIES ARE

CHAPTER 2 - Watching the Commercials

OUR WORK HAS JUST BEGUN

CHAPTER 3 - Understanding the Commercials

WHEAT 1992-1998

GOLD 1999-2004

COFFEE 1987-1993

AND A LESSON TO RELEARN WITH A VIEW OF THE STOCK MARKET

LESSON ONE IN USING THE COMMERCIAL DATA

BRITISH POUND AND EXCESSIVE BUYING/SELLING

CHAPTER 4 - The COT Index

SO MUCH FOR THEORY

A COMMERCIALS’ VIEW OF THE BRITISH POUND

BULLISH ON CRUDE OIL

THE SILVER BULLS AND THE COT

CHAPTER 5 - For Every Insider There Is an Outsider

LARGEST NET LONG POSITION

SMALLEST NET LONG POSITION

BEATING THE MARKET WITH THE BRITISH POUND

FIRST RULE FOR THE PUBLIC INDEX

SECOND RULE FOR THE PUBLIC INDEX

GOLD DOES NOT ALWAYS GLITTER

SOYBEAN SOLILOQUY

USING THE INDEX, NOT JUST THE NET LONG POSITION

BULLISH ON BONDS WHEN THE PUBLIC GETS BEARISH

CHAPTER 6 - Large Traders ... Not Quite As Good As You Think

BETTER ON BONDS?

BONDS AND GOLD ARE SURE NOT COWS

HOW DO THEY STAY LARGE TRADERS?

UNDERSTANDING THE COT REPORT

HOW THE FUNDS TRADE—X MARKS THE SPOT

THE INDEX APPROACH TO LOOKING AT THE LARGE TRADERS

CHAPTER 7 - The Facts on Volume

THE OTHER SIDE OF THE COIN

ONE DAY MATTERS?

THERE IS ANOTHER WAY TO LOOK AT THIS RELATIONSHIP

ANOTHER LOOK AT THAT TWO-SIDED COIN

ONE LAST LOOK

A LONGER-TERM VIEW OF VOLUME

CONFESSION TIME

SUMMATION

CHAPTER 8 - The Breakthrough

A KEY POINT ON OPEN INTEREST

OPEN INTEREST AS A TIMING OR ENTRY TOOL

MY OPEN INTEREST INDICATOR

SELLS IN SILVER

BUYING AND SELLING

CHAPTER 9 - Opening Up on Open Interest

OPEN INTEREST DOWN, PRICE DOWN CAN BE BULLISH

SOME REAL TRADES

CHAPTER 10 - A Unified Theory of COT Data

A NEW INDICATOR—COMMERCIALS VERSUS TOTAL OPEN INTEREST

CALLING THE LOWS

THE MORAL OF THE STORY

PIECES OF THE PUZZLE

AN ANALYSIS OF SILVER

GOLD, THE PROS, AND THE COMMERCIALS

COMMERCIALS AND A LOOK AT SHORT-TERM TRADING

THE MARKET—IT’S NOT A FLIP OF A COIN

PATTERNS TO TRADING PROFITS OR RANDOMNESS?

LOOKING AT LOSSES

CALLING UPON THE COMMERCIALS

SPLASHING ICE WATER ON THE PROFESSORS

CONFESSION TIME

THE TOUGHEST PART OF TRADING

MORE ON THE MIND-SET OF A TRADER

CHAPTER 11 - A New Twist on the Commercials

CHAPTER 12 - Pointers and Thoughts on Trading

THE ART OF USING STOPS

THIS IS NOT A BLACK-AND-WHITE BUSINESS

KNOW WHEN TO HOLD ’EM, KNOW WHEN TO FOLD ’EM

THE ABSOLUTE TRUTH OF INVESTMENTS

A GOOD WORD ON BAD HABITS

CHAPTER 13 - The One-Minute Commodity Trader

TO MARKET, TO MARKET, TO CATCH A FAT PIG

NOW ON THE BUY SIDE

A ONE-MINUTE WONDER?

ALL YOU WANTED TO KNOW ABOUT GOLD

THOUGHTS IN A NEVER-ENDING BATTLE

CHAPTER 14 - Charts

IT’S ALL ABOUT TIME

PROS AND CONS OF CHARTS

OPEN, HIGH, LOW, AND CLOSE CHARTS

CANDLESTICK CHARTS

CLOSING-ONLY PRICE CHARTS

MARKET PROFILE CHARTS

POINT-AND-FIGURE CHARTS

KAGI BARS

RENKO CHARTS

MORE CHART JARGON: MOVING AVERAGES

DON’T PUT YOUR CHARTS BEFORE THE HORSE

CHART PATTERNS AND SUCH

SUPPORT AND RESISTANCE

THE FIB OF FIBONACCI

DON’T MISUNDERSTAND ME ON CHARTS

CHAPTER 15 - Putting Theory to Work

ONE MORE STEP TO MASTER

A DIFFERENT VIEW OF THE SAME PROBLEM

Index

Founded in 1807, John Wiley & Sons is the oldest independent publishing company in the United States. With offices in North America, Europe, Australia, and Asia, Wiley is globally committed to developing and marketing print and electronic products and services for our customers’ professional and personal knowledge and understanding.

The Wiley Trading series features books by traders who have survived the market’s ever changing temperament and have prospered—some by reinventing systems, others by getting back to basics. Whether a novice trader, professional, or somewhere in-between, these books will provide the advice and strategies needed to prosper today and well into the future.

For a list of available titles, visit our web site at www.WileyFinance.com.

Copyright © 2005 by Larry Williams. All rights reserved.

Published by John Wiley & Sons, Inc., Hoboken, New Jersey.

Published simultaneously in Canada.

No part of this publication may be reproduced, stored in a retrieval system, or transmitted in any form or by any means, electronic, mechanical, photocopying, recording, scanning, or otherwise, except as permitted under Section 107 or 108 of the 1976 United States Copyright Act, without either the prior written permission of the Publisher, or authorization through payment of the appropriate per-copy fee to the Copyright Clearance Center, Inc., 222 Rosewood Drive, Danvers, MA 01923, [phone], fax [phone], or on the web at www.copyright.com. Requests to the Publisher for permission should be addressed to the Permissions Department, John Wiley & Sons, Inc., 111 River Street, Hoboken, NJ 07030, [phone], fax [phone], or online at http://www.wiley.com/go/permissions.

Limit of Liability/Disclaimer of Warranty: While the publisher and author have used their best efforts in preparing this book, they make no representations or warranties with respect to the accuracy or completeness of the contents of this book and specifically disclaim any implied warranties of merchantability or fitness for a particular purpose. No warranty may be created or extended by sales representatives or written sales materials. The advice and strategies contained herein may not be suitable for your situation. You should consult with a professional where appropriate. Neither the publisher nor author shall be liable for any loss of profit or any other commercial damages, including but not limited to special, incidental, consequential, or other damages.

For general information on our other products and services or for technical support, please contact our Customer Care Department within the United States at [phone], outside the United States at [phone] or fax [phone].

Wiley also publishes its books in a variety of electronic formats. Some content that appears in print may not be available in electronic books. For more information about Wiley products, visit our web site at www.wiley.com.

Library of Congress Cataloging-in-Publication Data:

Williams, Larry R.

Trade stocks & commodities with the insiders : secrets of the COT report / Larry Williams.

p. cm.—(Wiley trading series)

Includes index.

ISBN-13: 978-0-471-74125-1 (cloth)

1. Stocks. 2. Commodity futures. 3. Speculation. I. Title: Trade stocks and commodities with the insiders. II. Title. III. Series.

HG6041.W497 2005

332.64—dc22

2005007674

Introduction

Warning: Futures trading, stock trading, currency trading, options trading, etc., involve high risk and you can lose a lot of money.

What a way to start an introduction to a book!

Those scary words are just one of the current disclaimers the Federal Trade Commission (FTC) has proposed be prominently displayed by anyone offering an investment course to the public. Who can argue with that statement? Certainly not I.

However, two points are missing here. The first is obvious: if someone is losing money in the market, by the very definition, someone else is making money. Every dollar lost is a dollar won by someone else, hopefully you or me. There is another side of the coin the FTC does not want you to see: the potential for gargantuan profits. Where else have millions been made, in less time, with less work and less dollars up front?

What your mom or dad told you is correct. Without risk there is not much to be gained; risk and reward go hand in hand with each other. If there were no risk involved we could not have the potential for gain. To get rewards, we need risks. Duh!

When the markets first intrigued you, did you think it was possible to lose money? I sure thought it was, so the gummint men are just restating what we already know. Or are they just suppressive people at heart?